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Trade between the U.S. and China: Steady as she goes?

For years now, we’ve been talking about the tempest of tariffs and trade wars between the U.S. and China. The FRED graph above doesn’t reveal all the effects, but it gives us the big picture by tracking overall imports, exports, and the trade balance for goods. Clearly, U.S.-China trade has grown tremendously over the decades, along with a large trade surplus for China. But things haven’t changed in any substantial way for the past 10 years. The composition of traded goods today may be different from what it used to be, but there’s nothing remarkable happening in the aggregate.

A few more ideas:

  1. The units for imports and exports are in natural logarithms, which we’ve used before to evenly display changes over time.
  2. FRED has data only for traded goods, not services; but we did investigate this topic a while back.
  3. There’s nothing intrinsically bad about the U.S. having a trade deficit.

How this graph was created: Search for and select the “goods imports China” series and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” option to search for and add the “good exports China” series. Set the units for both lines to “Natural Log.” For the third line, use “Add Line” again to search for and select the “good imports China” series. Then use the “Customize data” search field to search for and select the “good exports China” series. Apply formula b-a. Finally, use the “Format” tab to choose “Right” for the y-axis position of the last line.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: EXPCH, IMPCH

Negative nominal interest rates for real?

A true story in Switzerland

Real negative interest rates are easy to imagine when inflation is higher than the interest rate. But nominal negative interest rates have long been thought of as either inconceivable or unsustainable. Yet, in recent years, several European countries and Japan have made negative nominal interest rates a reality. The most extreme case seems to be Switzerland, which is featured in the top graph: The spot rate, the 3-month LIBOR, and even the 10-year government bond rate are all negative now and have been for several years. How is this possible?

This isn’t a case of an economy that needs major stimulus through low interest rates. Rather, it’s an export-focused economy whose currency has a strong tendency to appreciate; in fact, the Swiss franc is considered a refuge currency in times of crisis. The crisis at hand involves the euro’s various troubles in recent years, including the debt problems of some of its member countries. Switzerland has avoided these troubles and has even managed to achieve successive government surpluses. So it’s easy to understand why there’s so much demand for Swiss francs and bonds. But so much demand typically causes a local currency to appreciate, which would make exporting more difficult. The Swiss National Bank, therefore, has adopted a policy of negative interest rates to make the franc less attractive. Interestingly, the effect permeates the Eurodollar market as well, as shown in the bottom graph.

How these graphs were created: NOTE: Data series used in these graphs have been removed from the FRED database, so the instructions for creating the graphs are no longer valid. The graphs were also changed to static images.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CHF3MTD156N, IR3TED01CHM156N, IRLTLT01CHM156N, IRSTCI01CHM156N

The education trade balance

Our last post discussed the foreign travel trade balance—that is, money spent by foreigners for tourism, business, and education in the U.S. compared with what Americans spend abroad. In this post, we focus on travel for education. The Bureau of Economic Analysis began including travel-for-education data only recently, when they made their last big revision to GDP data. In fact, the BEA has recomputed these data for the past several years, so we can compare the old and new series to get a sense of the education trade balance. (This is a much more convenient process than adding up all the expenses of foreign students, so thanks BEA!)

The FRED graph above makes it quite apparent that foreign students spend much more in the U.S. (3.5 times more) than American students spend abroad. In fact, the surplus for the last month of available data, $3.3 billion in September 2017, is about 7% of the overall trade deficit at the time and 12% of the trade deficit with China. Obviously, this surplus is quite substantial—with the bonus of having top international students study in the U.S., and possibly remain as part of the U.S. economy, after having their education paid by funds from abroad.

How this graph was created: Search for “travel trade,” select the exports series that includes education travel, and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, add the export series that removes education travel and apply formula a-b. Repeat for the imports series.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: BOMTVLM133S, BOXTVLM133S, ITMTAEM133S, ITXTAEM133S


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