Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

A fertility map

Where in the world is the population replacing itself?

Populations can replace themselves by having children (fertility) and through immigration. Here, we focus on fertility. A general rule is that women must have an average of 2.1 children to maintain the population, with the extra 0.1 owing to the fact that some children will not reach the age of procreation.

This GeoFRED map of the world shows how each country stands with respect to replacing itself. The color white indicates the country is below its replacement rate, light blue indicates pretty much the minimum replacement rate, and the darkening greens move up the fertility scale from there.

It’s not news that many Western industrialized nations have low fertility, which they compensate for with immigration. Poorer countries, as expected, have higher fertility. But there are a few cases that aren’t so well known. For example, some South American countries have low fertility, as does Thailand. Iran is a low-fertility country in between two high-fertility countries, Iraq and Afghanistan. These latter two countries tend to have net emigration, which is not surprising given the waves of conflict there, and thus their populations don’t increase as fast as their fertility would otherwise indicate. And then there’s Eastern Europe: very low fertility and net emigration, leading to substantial population loss.

How this map was created: The original post referenced an interactive map from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides a replacement map from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

Where is rail heading?

Tracking freight and passengers on U.S. railroads

What’s the story with trains? It turns out that U.S. railroad transportation has some nuances. The graph above shows that the amount of freight transported by train dropped during the Great Recession, as expected. But freight transport doesn’t appear to have gotten back on track since then. Passenger transport, however, rebounded in a big way after the Great Recession and has sustained levels well above those in the early-to-mid 2000s. What’s behind the disparity here? Passenger traffic in the U.S. is essentially driven by the Northeast corridor between Boston and Washington. This is where Amtrak introduced the Acela Express, a train that successfully competes with other modes of transportation. The gradual success of this train alone may explain the rise in passenger rail. Freight traffic appears to be less successful in matching its competition—mainly, trucking and waterway transportation. The graph below follows trucking and waterway, which seem to do better after the Great Recession than before.

How this graph was created: Search for “rail,” check the two series, and click on “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” menu, open the “Format” tab and place one of the series on the right axis. For the second graph, search for “tonnage,” check the two series, and click on “Add to Graph.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: RAILFRTCARLOADSD11, RAILPMD11, TRUCKD11, WATERBORNED11

Paying interest on excess reserves

An additional policy tool for the Fed

Commercial banks must adhere to regulations, including so-called reserve requirements. That is, banks must hold a certain fraction of their deposits as cash in a Federal Reserve account; these are known as “required reserves.” Banks can choose to hold even more cash in those accounts than what the Federal Reserve requires; these are known as “excess reserves.”

The graph above shows that required reserves are quite stable and grow as a constant fraction of total deposits in the banking system. But excess reserves increased considerably in 2008, as the Fed expanded the money supply to finance unconventional monetary policy measures such as quantitative easing. As of May 2018, excess reserves are nearly $1.9 trillion, ten times more than required reserves.

In normal times, excess reserves aren’t profitable, as they don’t earn a return. Instead of holding cash as excess reserves, banks could lend those funds and earn interest. However, after the 2008 recession, the Federal Reserve started paying interest on excess reserves (IOER). By altering the incentives for commercial banks to extend loans or hold excess reserves, the Fed is able to use the IOER as an additional monetary policy tool.

The second graph plots the IOER along with the (effective) federal funds rate, the Fed’s main tool for conventional monetary policy. The federal funds rate can be thought of as the interest rate at which financial institutions make short-term loans to each other. Here, we see that the federal funds rate tracks the IOER very closely. When banks have excess liquidity or reserves, they can choose whether to lend those reserves to other banks (at the federal funds rate) or deposit them at the Fed (and earn the IOER). Banks aren’t willing to lend to each other if the federal funds rate is substantially lower than the IOER, and so the two rates move closely together.

How these graphs were created: For the first graph, search for and select “required reserves of depository institutions” and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, choose “Add Line,” search for and select the monthly “excess reserves of depository institutions” series, and click “Add data series.” The first series is in billions of dollars; to change it to match the second series (in millions of dollars), select “Edit Lines”/”Edit Line 1” and add the formula a*1000. For the second graph, search for and select the monthly “effective federal funds rate” series. From the “Edit Graph” panel, choose “Add Line” and search for and select “interest rate on excess reserves.” Use the date range tool to set the start date in August 2008.

Suggested by Asha Bharadwaj and Miguel Faria-e-Castro.

View on FRED, series used in this post: EXCSRESNW, FEDFUNDS, IOER, REQRESNS


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