Federal Reserve Economic Data

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A counterclaim on countercyclical policy

Keynesian theory tells us that, when economic activity falls, government expenditures should rise. That is, government expenditures should be countercyclical and lean against the business cycle. Has this happened in the U.S.? In the graph, the red line shows growth of government expenditures and the blue line shows growth of private (nongovernmental) economic activity. And it looks like when one line is high the other is low. Does this mean government expenditures are countercyclical?

Actually, this is partly an optical illusion: On average, government expenses have grown more slowly than the rest of the economy, and thus the red line is more often low and the blue line is more often high.

A better way to examine this question is with a scatter plot, shown below. Each axis represents one indicator, and each dot corresponds to a quarterly data point. If government expenses were countercyclical, the cloud of dots would have a somewhat negative slope, with more dots in the top left and bottom right quadrants than the top right and bottom left. The scatter plot actually has a congregation in the middle, which shows there’s little correlation between the public and private sectors of the economy, at least in terms of expenditures.

How these graphs were created: For the top graph: From the Domestic Income and Product release, select “Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars” and then “Quarterly”; select the GDP and government expenses series; click “Add to Graph.” In the “Edit Graph” panel, add to line 1 (GDP) the government expenditure series again and apply the formula a-b. Use “Percentage Change from Year Ago” as units for the lines and use the slider to start the data in 1953:Q2 (which is after the explosion of government expenses for the Korean War) to avoid distorting the view. For the bottom graph: Use the top graph, but use the format tab to select graph type “Scatter.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: GCEC1, GDPC1

Job volatility among races

This graph traces employment over the past 43 years for three categories of people: Black, Hispanic, and White. Specifically, the graph shows the percentage of these groups who are employed. Each group’s employment follows basically the same general trend line, at different levels, but we can see some clear differences.

White employment has been the least volatile—that is, least likely to change rapidly or unpredictably from point to point. Black employment and Hispanic employment are not as steady; and, until recently, Hispanic employment has been especially volatile. These sharp upturns and downturns for Hispanic and Black workers mean they are hired more quickly but are also fired more quickly.

Besides becoming less volatile, Hispanic employment has closed the gap with White employment: It had generally been between White and Black employment, but since 2000 it has most often been at the top. Black employment, however, has consistently maintained a gap of 5-10% compared with White employment.

Look to FRASER, FRED’s sibling site, for a deeper examination of historical demographics related to employment: The statistical publications “Employment and Earnings” (1954-2007) and “Women in the Labor Force: A Databook” (2004-2010) are good examples. The latter focuses mainly on differences between the sexes, but also provides statistical tables that relate to race, including one on multiple jobholders.

How this graph was created: Search for “Employment-Population Ratio” and then “Black,” “Hispanic,” and “White.”

Suggested by Emily Furlow.

View on FRED, series used in this post: LNS12300003, LNS12300006, LNS12300009, LNU02300009

$7.25 of pay keeps the FLSA away

In 1938, the U.S. federal government passed the Fair Labor Standards Act, establishing a federal minimum wage of $0.25 per hour. Today, the federal minimum wage stands at $7.25 per hour. The FLSA doesn’t cover all workers, but it does cover those who meet certain criteria, such as those who work for businesses with annual sales or business conducted of at least $500,000. It covers those who work for hospitals and other medical or nursing care providers, schools, and government agencies. Domestic service workers and those involved in interstate commerce are covered as well.

A state minimum wage law applies to all residents within a state. If a worker isn’t covered under FLSA, they’ll receive the state minimum wage. If a worker is covered by both FLSA and state legislation, they’re generally paid the higher wage. These state standards differ across the country. Some states have no minimum wage. Some states, such as Washington, adjust their minimum wage annually according to changes in price levels.

The maps show changes in state minimum wages between 1985 (top map) and 2016 (bottom map). California and Massachusetts have the highest wage, at $10 per hour; Oregon and Connecticut also have comparatively high wages, at $9.25 and $9.60, respectively. A cluster of states, including Mississippi and Alabama, do not have a state minimum wage. In these states, if a worker meets FLSA criteria, they’re paid $7.25. If not, they’re paid whatever wage they negotiate with their employer. Finally, some states have lower minimum wages: Wyoming, for example, sets its minimum wage at $5.15, less than the FLSA rate. But one trend is consistent: Over time, the minimum wage has increased across the United States.

Many factors can contribute to the rate a state chooses to set. States’ labor forces and economies vary dramatically, so naturally the minimum wage can vary as well. Some regions, such as New England and the West Coast, have higher costs of living, which is a likely reason for higher minimum wages.

How these maps were created: The original post referenced interactive maps from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides replacement maps from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Meaulnes Kenwood.



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