Federal Reserve Economic Data

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April is National Poetry Month…even for FRED

National Poetry Month is April.
Believe it or not, the bloggers for FRED
thought a lyrical post could be offered
to celebrate and also be helpful.

FRED provides a bounty of statistics
to the public and the academy
describing our wondrous economy
across numerous characteristics.

O, the Current Population Survey
(brought to us by the U.S. BLS,
a source that is diligent and zealous)
is a labor market data bouquet.

We graph the writerly occupation
(whether wage-earning or on salary)
where men and women have equality
in large part—but lo! A deviation!

Notice the gain for the fairer gender:
a 2014 female vertex!
Why is this so? Poets lack a context,
and economists are left to wonder.

How this graph was created: For clarity let us return to prose: A search for “writers” provides you with several results, including the two series shown here. Select the two series and click on “Add to Graph.” If you mouse over the data points, you’ll see that, although men and women had similar levels for most of the period shown, in 2014 the number for men is 42K and the number for women is 60K. (NB: We did not include technical writers in this graph, as their role seems less poetic.)

Suggested by George Fortier and Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: LEU0254593200A, LEU0254700000A

Replicating the Japanese Phillips Curve

An essential part of the scientific process is to verify results by trying to replicate them. FRED can be helpful in this regard, and we provide a simple example of this today. Gregor Smith published a 2008 study entitled Japan’s Phillips Curve Looks Like Japan, demonstrating that when you draw a scatter plot of the inflation rate minus the unemployment rate of that country for a sample period of January 1980 to August 2005, the resulting graph, commonly called the Phillips Curve, actually looks like a map of Japan. We replicate this result in the graph above, as one can clearly distinguish the large Japanese islands, Tokyo Bay, and various other features. So, yes, we have replicated the original result.

But the replication process is not only about reproducing results. You also want to check how robust they are to various modifications. The obvious modification here is to extend the sample to a more-recent date. We show this below, and it looks like the various islands have merged. With respect to Japan’s geography, this could only have happened if the seas lowered significantly or if new volcanoes emerged in the sea. As we do not believe this has happened in recent years, we must conclude that the original published result is not robust.

How this graph was created: Search for “Japan CPI” and select the monthly series. Then search for and add “Harmonized Unemployment Rate Japan”—again taking the monthly series. Modify the units of the first series to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Modify the second series by applying the formula -a. Modify the date range of the graph to 1980-01-01 to 2005-08-01 and the graph type to “Scatter.” For the second graph, extend the date range to a more-recent date.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: JPNCPIALLMINMEI, JPNURHARMMDSMEI

Some educational effects on employment

Since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009, labor markets have improved dramatically. National unemployment rates have fallen from 10 percent to 4.9 percent. In no small part, this has been driven by the roughly 10 million new jobs created. Even so, labor market improvements haven’t been evenly distributed across the U.S. population: Those with higher levels of education have done much better than those with lower levels.

The graph shows the total, post-recession change in employment for workers over 25 years of age grouped by level of education. In the first year after the recession, few if any new jobs were created for anyone, regardless of education. After the first year, jobs steadily increased for those with a bachelor’s degree or higher. And it took another year for labor markets to improve for those with some college or an associate’s degree.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for those with, at most, a high school education. Since the end of the recession, these individuals continue to experience no net job growth. Labor markets have not improved for everyone.

How this graph was created: Search for “Employment Level” and select the following tags (in the left sidebar): “education,” “25 years +,” and “sa.” Select the four series and click “Add to Graph.” Edit the range of the graph to start in June 2009 using the controls in the top right-hand corner or the sliding bar below the graph. Because we want to see how employment has changed since the end of the recession, we need to change employment levels to cumulative changes in employment since June 2009. Here’s how we do that: For each series, find the June 2009 value and subtract it by using the “Create your own data transformation” field: For example, for “Employment Level: Bachelor’s Degree and Higher, 25 years and over,” the June 2009 value is 43,362; so you will apply the formula a-43362. After transforming each series, if the y-axis title and y-axis labels overlap, reduce the general font size in the “Graph Settings” menu.

Suggested by Michael McCracken and Joseph McGillicuddy.

View on FRED, series used in this post: LNS12027659, LNS12027660, LNS12027662, LNS12027689


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