Federal Reserve Economic Data

US gasoline prices rose sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the European Union and the United States imposed economic sanctions. The attention paid to these economic events was certainly warranted: In June 2022, the producer price index (PPI) for gasoline had jumped 85% above what it was a year earlier.

Oil prices were clearly affected, but how do those changes compare with price changes for other commodities? FRED has US price data for a variety of commodities, and the FRED graph above plots the PPI for natural gas, diesel fuel, crude petroleum, gasoline, farm products, and metal products from January 2020 to the latest available data at the time of this writing.

Metal and farm products

The orange and light blue lines in the graph show metal and farm product prices, respectively: These prices barely changed compared with the others, which is quite remarkable for commodities. Keep in mind that these are prices in the United States, and prices closer to the conflict did change more.

Energy commodities

On the other hand, energy markets have typically been more volatile. Before February 2022, diesel, gasoline, oil, and natural gas prices followed similar trends. The price of diesel and gas (both of which are connected to the price of crude oil) immediately increased after Russia invaded Ukraine. However, their paths diverged greatly thereafter. Gas and diesel both peaked in June 2022, but diesel’s PPI was about 109% more than in June 2021 compared with 85% for gasoline. Diesel prices rose higher because diesel fuel is scarcer worldwide: There simply weren’t enough refineries to meet diesel demand, especially after the US and other countries stopped purchasing energy exports from Russia.

These price indices have decreased considerably since then, showing that markets have been able to absorb the upheaval in early 2022.

How this graph was created: In FRED, search for and select “Producer Price Index by Commodity: Fuels and Related Products and Power: Natural Gas, Index 1982=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted.” From the “Edit Graph” menu, click the “Add Line” tab: Search for the producer price index of other commodities, and click “Add data series.” Once all lines have been added, change units to 100 in 2022-02-01 and apply to all. Then, add a user-defined line, with start and end dates on 2022-02-01 with values that go from maximum to minimum value in the graph. Finally, go to the “Format” tab and turn the vertical line black.

Suggested by Hoang Le and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria.

The FRED Blog has discussed how the timing of harvesting seasons results in predictable changes in the prices of fresh crops in the United States. Today, we use data on harmonized consumer prices indexes (HICPs) to compare seasonal upswings and downswings in vegetable prices in different countries across the European Union (EU).

The HICPs are directly comparable across all countries of the EU because they are calculated according to harmonized definitions. So, whether it’s called potato, potatoe, or patata, the product category for vegetables follows the European classification of individual consumption according to purpose (ECOICOP) and by goods and services.

The FRED graph above shows the HICPs for vegetables in four European countries: Poland (the blue line); Spain (the red line); Italy (the green line); and Latvia (the purple line). The data are reported by Eurostat and all four price index series have the same base period of January 2015.

Regular and large increases and decreases in consumer price indexes for vegetables in Poland and Latvia contrast with much smaller upswings and downswings in Spain and Italy. What gives? In Europe, northern countries record, on average, lower temperatures and less direct sunlight than southern countries, so their growing seasons for vegetables are relatively shorter. That makes their overall supply relatively small and drives prices up. At the same time, industrial agriculture in the southern countries supplements regional deficits in water, humidity, and nutrients, increasing their crop yields and driving prices down. In short, the climate conditions during the year have more marked seasonal effects on vegetable prices in those countries with a more constrained local supply. Those seasonal patterns are even more noticeable when we plot the percent change in the price indexes.

How the graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Vegetables for Poland.” Next, click on the “Edit Graph” button and use the “Add Line” tab to search for and add “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Vegetables for Spain.” Repeat the previous step to add “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Vegetables for Italy” and “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Vegetables for Latvia.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the monthly number of people unemployed and their status at the time they become unemployed. There are four categories, each represented by a colored area in the FRED graph above:

• workers who voluntarily left their jobs (the blue area)
• workers who involuntarily lost their jobs (the red area)
• former workers who, after a period of time, decided to re-enter the labor force and look for work (the green area)
• new members of the labor force who are actively looking for work (the purple area)

The FRED graph shows that, between January 1967 and September 2023, job losers made up the largest proportion of the unemployed. That proportion is heavily influenced by business cycles, and it spiked to almost 90% during the onset of the COVID-19-induced recession. The proportion of job leavers is small, and it also changes with the phases of the business cycle. The proportion of new labor market entrants is roughly similar to that of job leavers, although generally much more stable. Lastly, re-entrants to the labor force who are unemployed are more numerous than new entrants, albeit a more-accurate comparison between those two groups should take into consideration the 1994 redesign of the current population survey.

How the graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Job Leavers as a Percent of Total Unemployed.” Next, click on the “Edit Graph” button and use the “Add Line” tab to search for and add “Job Losers as a Percent of Total Unemployed.” Repeat the previous step to add “Reentrants to Labor Force as a Percent of Total Unemployed” and “New Entrants as a Percent of Total Unemployed.” Next, click on the “Format” tab, change the graph type to “Area,” and the stacking to “Normal.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.