Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

10-year inflation expectations

How high is inflation going to be over the next 10 years? It’s difficult to say, but we can measure what the markets expect. FRED has recently added 15 interest rate spreads, and one of them is perfect for measuring inflation expectations. There are 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities whose price should include these expectations. You can tease them out by comparing the price of these securities with the price of securities that are identical except for the inflation indexing: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities. From the look of the graph, it doesn’t appear that markets believe any significant inflation will occur over the next 10 years. In fact, the graph suggests that no significant inflation has been expected since these inflation-indexed securities were introduced.

How this graph was created: Search for “Breakeven inflation” and select the series of your choice. There is also a 5-year series. Both 5- and 10-year series are available in daily or monthly frequencies.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: T10YIEM

The peculiar Swiss unemployment rate

Switzerland is in many ways an atypical European country, and that includes its economy. This graph shows the Swiss unemployment rate. Pay particular attention to the scale. Compared with Europe or even most of the rest of the world, Switzerland has a very low unemployment rate. In fact, it is exceptionally low in the first years—so low, in fact, that in some places the line is scarcely visible. If you hover over the line to see the values, you’ll notice that some are even negative. This is due to the seasonal adjustment. And while this graph counts only the registered unemployed, another series counts all unemployed. Although this other series spans a shorter time period, it is not fundamentally different.

Why is Switzerland’s unemployment rate so low? One argument is that its labor market is very flexible. Another is that temporary immigrant worker permits have helped smooth fluctuations. This smoothing seems to have become less effective, though. At any rate, the Swiss secret hasn’t been conclusively explained and needs further study.

How this graph was created: Search for “Switzerland unemployment” and select the first choice. (A slightly different search will get you the employment rate for Switzerland County, Indiana.)

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: LMUNRRTTCHQ156S

The Beveridge curve

What’s new in FRED? Beyond the pie charts we saw on the blog a week ago, FRED also features scatter plots, like the one shown here. The classic scatter plot used in economic analysis is the Beveridge curve, which describes the dynamics of the labor market through the business cycles, with the unemployment rate on the horizontal axis and the job openings rate on the vertical axis. Thus, every point corresponds to the values of those two rates on a particular date, with the dates connected by a line.

As one would expect, when the unemployment rate is high, the job openings rate is low (and vice versa). If markets were perfectly fluid with perfectly adjustable wages, both rates would be zero. But there are all sorts of frictions, from rigidities in wages to spatial, sectoral, and competency mismatches between demand and supply of labor. These frictions typically generate a scatter plot that looks like a banana, as the markets react sluggishly to changing conditions. Because the current business cycle has been so long and continues even now, the line around the banana is not yet complete.

How this graph was created: Select the two series, the maximum time range, then choose “scatter” for the graph type. To connect the dots, choose a non-zero line width in the settings of the first series. That’s where you can also adjust the size of the dots.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: JTSJOR, UNRATE


Back to Top