Federal Reserve Economic Data

Who is employed, who is unemployed, and who’s not in the labor force? Data that answer these questions are reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) using the Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the US Census. FRED has monthly data on the CPS starting on January 1, 1948, which translates into 906 data points between that date and July 1, 2023. Today, we use that happenstance to celebrate this, our 906th FRED Blog post. Yes, we are that data-nerdy.

Take a look back and you’ll see that the FRED Blog has tapped into many of the 8,449 data series from the Household Survey of the CPS to tell the stories behind those numbers. Here’s a sample, including the FRED graph above for the unemployment rate, the most popular series among them on FRED:

• Civilian Labor Force: Are labor supply and labor demand out of balance?
• Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: Labor force participation rates of armed forces veterans
• Employment: Employment growth after the macro disruptions of COVID and World War II
• Employment Population Ratio: What’s the story behind who’s working?
• Unemployment Level: Ceasing emergency federal unemployment benefits: A look at the latest state-level data
• Unemployment Rate: Comparing unemployment rates by race: The Great Recession vs. COVID-19
• Not in Labor Force: A greater number of workers still remain outside the labor force
• Labor Force Participation Rate: A closer look at labor in the U.S.
• Multiple Jobholders: Moonlighting in the spotlight
• Duration of Unemployment: The unusual duration of unemployment
• Losers and Leavers: Unemployed Job Leavers: A Meaningful Gauge of Confidence in the Job Market? (from the BLS)
• Earnings: Trying to measure manager vs. non-manager pay
• Entrants and Reentrants: Labor Market Exit and Re-Entry: Is the United States Poised for a Rebound in the Labor Force Participation Rate? (from the Boston Fed)
• Labor Force Status Flows: How labor market flows changed

Stay tuned to the FRED Blog as we continue to tap into the CPS to tell interesting stories about the labor market.

How this graph was created: On the FRED homepage, look for the most popular series and click on the unemployment rate. Click on the first choice.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

FRED recently added three series on the macroeconomic uncertainty index for the United States reported by Kyle Jurado, Sydney Ludvigson, and Serena Ng. The authors use a set of 132 individual macroeconomic time series to calculate forecasting factors and estimate period-specific measures of uncertainty. More details about their methodology are available here.

The FRED graph above shows the value of that index with three horizons: 1 month ahead (the blue line); 3 months ahead (the red line); and 1 year ahead (the green line). The relative position of the three lines in the graph shows that economic conditions are gradually more unpredictable the further we look into the future. Yet, the same lines become relatively smoother because the more-distant forecasts become  gradually less distinctive. The timing of the peaks and troughs of the data series shows uncertainty is highest during recessions, particularly after economic contractions have been underway for a few months.

The COVID-19-induced recession was an exception because its short duration, dated by the NBER, does not immediately convey its dramatic and broad scope across labor and product markets. At the time of this writing, the uncertainty index has not returned to its much lower and relatively steady pre-recession values at any of the reported time horizons.

How this graph wase created: Search FRED for and select “JLN 1-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search and select “JLN 3-Month Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty.” Repeat the last step to add “JLN 1-Year Ahead Macroeconomic Uncertainty.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The FRED graph above shows two different measures of money between 2005 and 2010: The red line tracks M2, which includes cash, checking deposits, and other short-term deposits. The green line tracks the monetary base, or M0, which includes only cash and bank reserves. The ratio of M2 to M0 (blue line) is often referred to as the “money multiplier,” a measure that describes how the  supply of private money (deposits) responds to the monetary base: As banks accumulate excess reserves in their account, they expand their deposits and lending activities.

Between December 2007 and January 2009, M2 increased steadily but gradually, while M0 doubled from 837 billion to 1.7 trillion. As a result, the money multiplier dropped by half and has remained lower ever since.

Our second FRED graph separates M0 into its two components: currency (red line) and bank reserves (blue line). We see that the drastic change shown in the first graph is due to an increase in the supply of reserves following the 2008 recession. The increase in reserves is accompanied by a simultaneous change: The Fed began paying interest on excess reserves in October 2008. Had excess reserves brought no interest returns, banks would have expanded their deposit and lending activities because simply holding those reserves on the balance sheet is costly. Interest on excess reserves decreases the cost of holding them. As a result, banks are willing to hold more reserves relative to other assets, and they have less incentive to expand their balance sheet. This is likely to explain the decrease in the money multiplier. More detailed discussion about the phenomenon can be found in this article.

How these graphs were created: For the first graph, search FRED for and select “M2 (M2SL).” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Monetary Base; Total (BOGMBASE).” In the “Formula” field, type: a/1000 and select “Apply” in order to adjust the units. Next, use the “Add Line” tab again to search for and select “M2 (M2SL).” In the “Customize data” field, type “BOGMASE.” Then in the “Formula” field, type a/(b/1000) and select “Apply” to obtain the ratio of M2 to the monetary base. From the “Format” panel, under “Line 3,” set “Y-Axis position” to “Right.” Finally, adjust the time series to be from 2005-01-01 to 2010-01-01.

For the second graph, search FRED for a select “Monetary Base; Reserve Balances (BOGMBBM).” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Monetary Base; Currency in Circulation (MBCURRCIR).” Finally, adjust the time series to be from 2005-01-01 to 2010-01-01.

Suggested by Yu-Ting Chiang and Mick Dueholm.