Federal Reserve Economic Data

There’s no direct way to measure the market power of employees or employers, but some indicators can provide clues. One such indicator is the ratio of quits to layoffs, shown in the FRED graph above.

When employees feel they have good bargaining chips, they’re more like to quit a job, generally for a better one. In this situation, employers are less likely to lay off their workers: (i) because their best workers may already be leaving and (ii) because new workers might bargain for better conditions. So, when employees have more market power, quits should be higher and layoffs should be lower, which means this ratio should be high.

In the opposite situation (during a recession, for example), fewer employees quit because there are fewer opportunities. They feel their bargaining power is lower, and the quits-to-layoffs ratio is lower.

The recent data in the graph reveal that employees enjoyed historic levels of market power during the pandemic, but that has recently eroded to more typical levels. This observation is consistent with the increasingly successful return-to-work mandates across the economy, whereby employers have managed to impose more and more of their conditions in the workplace.

How this graph was created: In FRED, search for and select the series for “quits.” In the “Edit Graph” panel, add the second series by searching for and selecting “layoffs.” Apply formula a/b.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

In times of market turmoil, fear and uncertainty take center stage. One tool analysts use to measure this fear is the VIX, often called the “Fear Index,” published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

The graph shows that the VIX value is about 20 on average but much higher during periods of extreme uncertainty, such as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the financial crisis in 2008:

• In 2020, the end-of-month peak was 53.54 in March and the daily peak was 82.69 March 16.
• In 2008, the end-of-month peak was 59.89 in October and the daily peak was 80.86 November 20.

But what exactly is the VIX?

VIX, or volatility index, is a forward-looking measure of expected future volatility in the stock market. It captures these expectations using prices of “out of the money” (OTM) put and call options on the S&P 500 index. These options are particularly useful in capturing future expectations of extreme price movements. For example, OTM put options help protect against downside risk and become more expensive when investors anticipate a decline in the S&P 500. The VIX calculates a weighted average of implied volatilities across a range of strike prices for these options, providing an estimate of expected volatility over the next 30 days.

The FRED graph shows the VIX’s countercyclical pattern over time: It rises during economic downturns and falls during booms. Why? For example, in recessions, firms borrow more and thus their stock returns could become increasingly volatile. Or investors could become more risk averse and act accordingly. Also, high uncertainty during recessions can potentially further exacerbate these economic downturns.

The VIX, as a barometer of market uncertainty, reflects the collective expectations of investors about future stock market volatility. it is clearly associated with periods of economic turmoil, but it also highlights the natural cycles of confidence and caution in financial markets.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “VIX” and you’ll have the option to select the “CBOE Volatility Index: VIX” series, with series ID “VIXCLS.”

Suggested by Aakash Kalyani.

At the end of January 2025, FRED posted preliminary job growth data for US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2024. These data from the BLS provide a useful glimpse into the differences in job opportunities and broader economic growth across the nation.

US stats

The FRED map above shows the wide range of job growth across 352 MSAs. Median MSA job growth was 1.1%. Most MSAs (220, or 62%) had job growth below the US average of 1.4%, and 41 MSAs had negative job growth (shown in red).

Strongest job growth: 6.5% in Rochester, Minnesota, followed by 5.3% in Stockton-Lodi, California.

Steepest declines: -6.7% in Ocean City, New Jersey, followed by -2.7% in Ithaca, New York.

Eighth Federal Reserve District stats

The median job growth rate of the Eighth Federal Reserve District (the home of FRED) matches the US median of 1.1%.

Strongest job growth: 2.4% in Columbia, Missouri.

Steepest decline: -1.0% in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.

The FRED graph below reports the job growth rates for the four most-populous MSAs in the Eighth District, along with the US average over the past two years. The graph shows that job growth in St. Louis and Little Rock has outpaced the national average over the past two years, while growth in Louisville and Memphis has been slower than the national average.

Of course, these data are subject to revision, as highlighted in this 2017 post. So, this analysis will be revisited in March after the benchmark revision.

How these graphs were created:
Map: Search FRED for and select series ID “STLNA.” Click “Edit Graph” in the upper right: Under “Units,” select “Percent change from year ago.” Click the “View Map” button to see the data across all MSAs. Click “Edit Map”: In the format section’s “Data grouped by” menu, select “User Defined Method” to choose your own data groups and colors.
Graph: Search FRED for and select series ID “PAYEMS.” Click “Edit Graph” then “Add Line”: Search for “STLNA” and click “Add series.” Repeat this for the three other metro areas shown: LRSNA, LOINA, MPHNA. In the “Edit Graph” panel’s “Units” menu, select “Percent change from Year Ago” and click “Copy to all.” Modify the frequency to “Annual” and select aggregation method “End of Period”; repeat this step for each line. From the “Format” section’s “Graph type” menu, select “Bar.” Return to the graph itself and, in the upper right,  modify the date range to “1Y” (1 year).

Suggested by Charles Gascon.