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Posts tagged with: "CNP16OV"

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Why is the unemployment rate not decreasing?

The U.S. economy has been adding jobs continuously for several years. In fact, payroll employment growth has been consistently higher than measures of population growth, including the civilian population shown in the graph above. This is definitely an encouraging sign for the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate has steadily decreased over this period, yet it has hardly moved in recent months: It was 5.1% in August 2015 and is 5.0% as of April 2016. With this larger inflow of employed people than people in general, the unemployment rate should decrease, right? That would be correct if the proportion of people in the labor force remained constant. But it has not remained constant, as is visible in the graph below. The labor force participation rate has been increasing significantly in recent months after a decades-long decline. A large number of people who previously declared they were not in the labor force (not working and also not looking for a job) are now in the labor force. Some of these people are unemployed, and these additions to unemployment rolls have been large enough to almost exactly erase the gains made in employment.

How these graphs were created: For the first graph, go to the most popular series (shown on the FRED homepage, under “At a Glance” tab) and click on the payroll employment link there. Then add the civilian noninstitutional population series to the graph. Finally, change the units of both series to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” For the second graph, search for and add “Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate” to the graph, then add the unemployment rate series. Finally, set the y-axis to the right for the latter.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: CIVPART, CNP16OV, PAYEMS, UNRATE

Fun fact: vehicle miles traveled

While teaching students, you may find it helpful to locate “fun facts” to call out data that illustrate the topic at hand. (This blog poster had fun reading with her youngest son, who’d point out these facts and read them aloud, starting with the phrase “Fun fact…”) FRED is the perfect tool for highlighting economic facts because it has so many different categories of economic data. For instance, let’s look at transportation. Fun fact: The number of vehicle miles traveled relative to the population old enough to drive has been declining for a decade.

How this graph was created: This FRED graph requires a simple transformation. Find “Vehicle Miles Traveled,” add population to that line, and divide the first series by the second. There are several choices for population: Here we use the “Civilian Noninstitutional Population,” which includes everyone above age 16 who is not in the military or institutionalized.

Suggested by Katrina Stierholz

View on FRED, series used in this post: CNP16OV, TRFVOLUSM227NFWA

The demographics of the labor force participation rate

There is much lamenting about the decline in the labor force participation rate. As we recently discussed on this blog, while the rate decreased quickly during the previous recession and its recovery, the overall decline began several years before. This decline indicates there must be more than cyclical or even policy-related forces at work. One likely candidate is demographics. In the graph above, the proportion of the U.S. population 25 to 54 years of age follows a pattern similar to that of the labor force participation rate over the past 10 years. Why look at this 25-54 age range? Because this group has the highest labor force participation rate. So, if the share of this age group is declining, the aggregate labor force participation rate is likely to decline as well.

How this graph was created: For the first line, search for “population 25-54” and select “Civilian noninstitutional population—25-54 years.” To create the ratio, add the “Civilian noninstitutional population” series via the “Add Data Series” option: When you add this series, be sure to select “Modify existing series” for series 1. Then use the “Create your own data transformation” option using the formula a/b*100 so that the result is expressed in percentages. For the second line, simply add the civilian labor force participation rate as series 2.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: CIVPART, CNP16OV, LNU00000060

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