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Posts tagged with: "CNP16OV"

View this series on FRED

How labor market flows changed

After the most recent recession, the volume of workers switching their employment status from unemployment to non-participation (that is, not in the labor force) and vice versa increased dramatically, reaching levels not seen in the previous two recessions.

The first graph shows the flows from non-participation into unemployment (NU) and from employment into unemployment (EU), both normalized by population. In the past, these two flows closely tracked each other and the contribution of both non-participation and employment to unemployment was roughly equal. However, in the Great Recession, the contribution to unemployment from both series increased significantly, with the contribution of non-participation becoming substantially larger, peaking far above the EU flow and taking a much longer time to return to lower levels.

The second graph shows the flows of workers that have switched from employment and non-participation into unemployment as a fraction of total population. We can see that the flows from employment to non-participation (EN) have decreased in the past recession, a behavior in line with previous episodes. The flows from unemployment into non-participation (UN) show a much stronger response, increasing to historically high levels after 2008.

The fact that both UN and NU flows are larger than usual, but of a roughly similar magnitude, implies that the labor market has become more dynamic on that margin. The levels of labor market variables (employment, unemployment, and non-participation) are very sensitive to the dynamics of labor market flows. Therefore, understanding the causes for the recent evolution of the UN and NU flows is central to understanding the dynamics of labor market variables in the past recession.

How these graph were created: Go to the labor force status flows category. For the first graph, find the flow called “Labor Force Flows Employed to Unemployed” and graph the seasonally adjusted values. Select the “Graph” tab and scroll down to the “Add Data Series” option. In the keywords box, search for “Labor flows,” scroll down to “Labor Force Flows Not in Labor Force to Unemployed,” and add the series as a new data series. Select the “Add Data Series” option again and search in the keyword box for “Civilian population.” Select the first series and add the data under the “Modify existing series option” for data series 1 and 2. Now, select “Edit Data Series.” Under the “Create your own data transformation” option, type the formula a/b and click “Apply.” Do this for each data series. Finally, restrict the time period to 1990 through 2014. To make the second graph, repeat this process but this time select the flows “Employed to Not in the Labor Force” and “Unemployed to Not in the Labor Force.”

Suggested by Maxiliano Dvorkin and Hannah Shell

View on FRED, series used in this post: CNP16OV, LNS17400000, LNS17600000, LNS17800000, LNS17900000

How much do Americans drive?

How many miles do Americans drive each month, each year, over the past 10 years…? FRED has the answers. The red line on the graph is a monthly series of miles driven. As you can see, it varies greatly according to the seasons of the year, which should surprise no one. One can clearly see the upward trend, but all the jaggedness makes it more difficult to see what’s been happening for the past 10 years or so. Has there been a recent decline?

To investigate, we can use a 12-month moving average of sorts that can be created in FRED. (This graph appears below the first one.) While some moving averages include about 6 months before and 6 months after a point in time, this moving average takes the average of the 12 preceding months, which smooths the series to make it more readable. In addition, this average is divided by the civilian noninstitutional population—that is, likely drivers. (The same result would be achieved if those below age 16 were removed from the overall data.) This second depiction makes it much clearer that, per capita, Americans are driving less these days.

How this graph was created: Search for “Vehicle Miles Traveled,” then add the data series “Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled.” Add yet another series, “Civilian Noninstitutional Population,” but this time select the option to modify existing data series 2. For series 2, select right y-axis position and create the data transformation “a/b.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: CNP16OV, M12MTVUSM227NFWA, TRFVOLUSM227NFWA

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