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Posts tagged with: "GDPDEF"

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If they drive, they will park (Or if they park, they will drive?)

Correlation does not always equal causation

This graph shows that the more people drive, the more they park and generate revenue for parking lot and garage operators. While there’s clearly a correlation between these two indicators, it isn’t clear that there’s a straightforward causality between them. In fact, a third indicator may be affecting the other two: the number of cars in use, the size of the road network, economic activity in general, commuting distance… Or maybe it’s a combination of all or some of these. This ambiguity is what makes statistical analysis much more complex than simply looking at correlations in a graph. FRED helps you stay rigorous by allowing you to download data into your favorite statistical software, either with a download from FRED itself (for example, via the “Download Data” link below the graph) or natively from the software of your choice. For starters, you can use this published data list.

How this graph was created: Search for and select “parking lot revenue” and click on “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” menu, search for “GDP deflator” in the “Customize data” section and add the series, applying formula a/b. Then from the “Add Line” tab, search for and add “vehicle miles.” Finally, from the “Format” tab, place the y-axis of the second line on the right side.

How this data list was created. For starters, you need to (create and) log on to a FRED account. Then, from any account page, click on “Add new” and select “Data list.” Give it a name. Then search for the series, check the series you want, and click on “Add to data list.” Repeat until satisfied. You can make the data list public and will be required to give it a public name.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: GDPDEF, REVEF81293TAXABL, TRFVOLUSM227NFWA

Corporate profits versus labor income

Risk and reward versus slow and steady

This FRED graph shows the evolution of two sources of income in our national economy: the compensation of employees through wages and other salary compensation, and the compensation of capital through profits. Both series are adjusted for inflation and both start at the level of 100 in 1954, which is the first year that’s considered “post-war” for economic purposes. (NOTE: The economic impact of the Korean War has essentially vanished.)

Eyeballing the data leads to two major conclusions. First, corporate profits move a lot, especially in response to general business activity. Profits tend to tank during recessions (noted with gray bars), which is understandable. After all, it’s well understood that investing in a business is a risky undertaking that deserves and often acquires compensation. Employee income is much more stable, but still suffers during recessions. Second, the trends of the two series tend to track each other over several decades, reflecting the general growth of the economy. The past decade and a half seems to be different, though. Never have corporate profits outgrown employee compensation so clearly and for so long. Is it because there’s been a particularly risky climate for investment, or is something else afoot?

How this graph was created: From the release table about national income by type of income, check the two series and click on “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, add a series by searching for and selecting “GDP deflator,” apply formula a/b, and finally set the index value of 100 to 1954-05. Repeat for the second line.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CPROFIT, GDPDEF, WASCUR

Royalty payments and the incentives to conduct research and development

Countries are introducing policies to generate stronger intellectual property rights. These policies are aimed at increasing incentives for firms to conduct research and development in the country. One form of intellectual property rights is captured by patent royalty payments—that is, payments made to the owner of a patent for the right to use that asset.

The U.S. has experienced a substantial increase in patent royalty receipts and license fees since the 2000s (blue line on left Y-axis). These data are reported in the balance of payments of the country as exports of services and reflect income that firms in the U.S. receive from other countries to use their intellectual property (e.g., patents, trademarks, copyrights, and franchises).

On top of the increase of net receipts of royalty payments from the rest of the world, there has been an increase in expenditures in research and development in the U.S. during the same period (red line on right Y-axis).

As intellectual property rights become stronger, the incentive of firms to innovate strengthens as well. Part of this research and development translates into patented innovations; along with stronger intellectual property rights, this increases royalty payments by firms in other countries that want to use this knowledge.

How this graph was created: Search for “Exports of services: Royalties and license fees” and click on the series you want to create the first line. Select “Line 1” in “Edit Lines” under the “Edit Graph” tab and add the series “Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator” to the existing line. Apply the formula a/(b/100) to deflate exports into a constant year. Use “Add Line” within “Edit Graph” to add line 2 “Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Nonresidential: Intellectual Property Products: Research and Development” to the existing graph. Change the time line to be “2000/01/01-2015/01/01” through the two boxes next to “Edit Graph.” Finally, under the “Format” tab, select “Right” for the “Y-Axis position” for line 2.

Suggested by Ana Maria Santacreu.

View on FRED, series used in this post: B684RC1Q027SBEA, GDPDEF, Y006RX1Q020SBEA

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