Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

Retail sales in a pandemic recession

Diverse tales by sectors

The FRED graph above shows retail sales for the last year and a half. Of course, the pandemic has had a huge impact, with a severe drop and a quick recovery. But the retail sector is large and diverse. So let’s look at various layers of it.

This graph is one of the strangest looking ones we’ve ever shown on this blog. And it tells very different stories. Let’s go through them one by one. (Hover over the legend in the graph to better see the respective lines.)

Grocery store sales actually surged with the pandemic. This is likely linked to the substitution from eating out to eating at home, which we discussed earlier on this blog.
Alcohol sales increased as well, as discussed in another post.
Pharmacies and drug stores are also doing well, likely due to a higher demand for prevention goods.
Men’s clothing has been a disaster, bottoming out in April 2020 at 12% of its January 2020 sales (after adjusting for seasonal variations).
Sporting goods sales fell by half but are now higher than before. Whether this rise was caused by simply catching up on postponed sales remains to be seen.
Warehouse clubs and superstores did well initially and are now back to normal.
Online and mail-order shopping… It’s no surprise this area is doing well, but it hasn’t been exploding as much as some may think.

The sectors we highlighted here are special in some ways, but there’s much more to explore from the Monthly Retail Sales release table.

How these graphs were created: For both graphs, start from the release table. For the first graph, simply click on the retail sales excluding food services and restrict the sample to 2019-01-01 to 2020-06-01. For the second graph, check the relevant series, click on “Add to Graph”; from the “Edit Graph” panel, change units to 100 for 2020-01-01, click “Apply to all,” and restrict the sample period to 2019-01-01 to 2020-06-01.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: MRTSSM44000USS, MRTSSM4451USS, MRTSSM4453USS, MRTSSM44611USS, MRTSSM44811USS, MRTSSM451USS, MRTSSM45291USS, MRTSSM4541USS

The high(er) price of health

Our purchases cost more and more over time, given inflation. Tracking the price index for personal consumption expenditures is one way to measure inflation. And the FRED graph above shows that, since 2000, personal consumption expenditures (purple line) have become 40% more expensive. This amounts to an annual rate of inflation of about 1.8%.

Price indexes can be computed for specific spending categories as well—such as food, energy, and health. The Health Expenditures Price index is also shown in this graph (blue line): It’s the way the Bureau of Economic Analysis tracks the price of heath expenditures for households.

The graph reveals how much faster the price of health expenditures is growing relative to the price of general consumption expenditures: It took 19 years for general consumption expenditures to become 40% more expensive, while it took only 7 years for health expenditures to do that. So, the inflation rate for health expenditures is much higher: 3.7% per year.

How this graph was created: On FRED’s main page, search for “Personal Consumption Expenditures”; find and select “Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-Type Price Index.” Use the “Edit Graph” menu’s “Add Line” option to search for “Blended” and select “Health Expenditures Price Index, Blended Account Basis.” Click on “Add data series.” In the Units box, choose “Index (Scale value to 100 for chosen date)” and choose the year 2000. Then click “Copy to all.” Return to the graph and restrict the view to 2000-01-01 to 2020-01-01.

Suggested by Guillaume Vandenbroucke.

View on FRED, series used in this post: HLTHSCPIBLEND, PCEPI

Supply and demand shocks to food prices: FRED data à la carte

Rising meat prices, falling fish prices

In an earlier post, the FRED Blog discussed the price changes of a classic lunch option. Today, we discuss some dinner options, showing how the market prices for “surf and turf” have changed recently.

The Turf

The graph above uses U.S. consumer price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to show the percent change in price from a year ago for three “turf” dining options: pork, beef, and chicken. (Btw, We use percent changes from a year ago to account for any seasonal patterns.)

Pork chop prices are clearly hogging a lot of space in the graph. In fact, the average price of pork chops has grown by double digits since April 2020. Sirloin steak prices have also moved up dramatically during the same time period. Chicken prices have also grown, but they are last in the pecking order here.

These spikes in meat prices are the result of supply shocks. The Economic Research Service at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) describes the decrease in meat output resulting from COVID-19 outbreaks among workers at several meat-packing facilities. The USDA maintains a website with FAQs about the pandemic and food supply chain issues.

The Surf

The second graph puts fish and shrimp on the scales, using primary commodity price data from the International Monetary Fund to show the percent change in their prices from a year ago. The global price of fish has decreased since March 2020, and the global price of shrimp has also started to decrease. These price drops are the result of demand shocks. This report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations describes how the decreased demand for fishery products in the hospitality sector, another disruption related to the COVID-19 pandemic, has played a role in lowering global prices.

The FRED Blog Team will be digging up data on vegetarian and vegan dining options to cultivate a similar post. Stay tuned.

How there graphs were created: For the “turf” graph, start on the FRED homepage and browse data by “Release.” Search for “Average Price Data” and click on “Food.” From the table, select the “Steak, Sirloin, USDA Choice, Boneless, Per Lb. (453.6 Gm) in U.S. City Average,” “All Pork Chops, Per Lb. (453.6 Gm) in U.S. City Average”, and “Chicken, Fresh, Whole, Per Lb. (453.6 Gm) in U.S. City Average” series and click “Add to Graph.” Next, change the units of the series to “Percent Change from Year Ago” and click on “Copy to all.” Next, edit the graph through the “Format” tab and select “Graph type: Bars.” Last, select colors to taste. For the “surf” graph, search for “Global price of Shrimp, Monthly, U.S. Dollars per Kilogram, Not Seasonally Adjusted.” Next, edit the graph by clicking on “Add a line,” searching for “Global price of Fish, Monthly, U.S. Dollars per Kilogram, Not Seasonally Adjusted,” and clicking on “Add.” Edit the units and graph type as described above.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

View on FRED, series used in this post: APU0000703613, APU0000706111, APU0000FD3101, PSALMUSDM, PSHRIUSDM


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