Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

Seeking, missing, finding, and filling jobs

Bloomberg News recently suggested firms may be struggling to find qualified employees. The FRED graph above does show that, for the past year, the number of job openings in the U.S. has generally been higher than the number of hires. So, yes, some positions aren’t being filled. Also, the level of unemployment has been steadily decreasing since 2010, even though the BLS reports that the unemployment rate hardly fell from August to April of this year.

Civilian unemployment rate = (Unemployment level / Civilian labor force) * 100

As the equation shows, for the unemployment rate to hold steady and, at the same time, for the unemployment level to decrease, the labor force must also decrease. So, while fewer “unemployed” people might be taken at face value to mean more people are finding jobs, keep in mind that some people may have simply stopped looking for a job and left the labor force. And firms may not be finding their ideal applicants among the unemployed.

On the other hand, the unemployed may not be looking for the right jobs. For more insight into the current employment situation, visit FRASER (Federal Reserve Archival System for Economic Research) for the Employment Situation—May 2016. This and previous reports from the BLS tally which industries have added or cut jobs in that particular period—potentially useful information for those who want to know which industries are potentially looking to hire. In FRASER, you can explore plenty of interesting publications on employment throughout history. Happy hunting!

How this graph was created: Search for “unemployment level” and select the seasonally adjusted series and click “Add to Graph.” Adjust the timeline to start at January 2007. Add the next series by searching for “hires” and choosing the total nonfarm seasonally adjusted monthly series with level in thousands for units. Add the last series by searching for “job openings” and again choosing the total nonfarm series.

Suggested by Emily Furlow.

View on FRED, series used in this post: JTSHIL, JTSJOL, UNEMPLOY

FRED is looking good

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We asked for feedback, and our users delivered. Thank you!

The FRED series page has been revamped, and some of you have even been peeking at on our beta site over the past several weeks. We hope you like the results as much as we do. Here are the major changes:

  • FRED now lives at fred.stlouisfed.org. All traffic from the old address will be redirected, so no reason to worry about your bookmarks or old links.
  • We made the graph the star of the page—that is, BIGGER!
  • You can now see the edits to the graph as you make them. No need for scrolling. Click on the “Edit Graph” button to open the side panel.
  • We have reimagined and rewritten the FRED “Help” section: fredhelp.stlouisfed.org.
  • You can also get help from the short videos in the side panel. Just click on the info buttons.
  • When adding a line, the search box remembers your previous series.
  • Notes and related content remain beneath the graph.
  • The “Related Resources” section now includes thumbnails of relevant material. We’ll keep adding more to this section.
  • When sharing a graph, you can now control whether the sample window should update in the future.
  • All download options are available from a single location, including downloading several series at a time.
  • Plus many more small tweaks and improvements.

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Local unemployment dynamics in the Great Recession

The U.S. labor market as a whole has recovered from the effects of the recent recession: The national unemployment rate was 10% at the end of 2009, but now stands at 4.7%, a number FOMC participants consider to be close to its long-run value. Despite this overall recovery, regional patterns of recession and recovery differ, with some areas better off and some worse than average. These three GeoFRED maps show county unemployment rates at their pre-recession trough (December 2007), at their recession peak (October 2009), and at the time of the most-recent estimate (April 2016).

In December 2007, about 21 percent of counties had rates below 3.5% and about 66 percent of counties had rates below 5.5%. Certain regions experienced slightly higher unemployment rates, particularly the West Coast, Central South, and Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Midwest and South (from Minnesota to Texas) had the lowest unemployment rates, with most rates below 3.5%.

By October 2009, only 15 percent of counties still had unemployment rates below 4.4%: Most counties had rates between 7.5% and 15.5%, and about 10 counties had rates greater than 20.5%. The regions with higher pre-recession unemployment rates also had higher levels of unemployment during the recession. And a strip of counties in the Northern Midwest maintained unemployment rates below 4.5%.

Today, some county-level unemployment rates remain slightly above their pre-recession trough, although most have recovered or even improved beyond pre-recession levels: 21 percent of counties have unemployment rates below 3.5% (the same fraction as in December 2007); 68 percent of counties have rates below 5.5% (slightly better than the pre-recession trough); and nine counties have maintained extremely high unemployment rates—above 20.5%. Newly developed regions in the West such as Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah have unemployment rates that are higher than the pre-recession trough, whereas Midwestern rates are lower than their 2007 levels.

How these maps were created: The original post referenced interactive maps from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides replacement maps from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Maximiliano Dvorkin and Hannah Shell.



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