The FRED® Blog

Stress test indicators

Screenshot from 2015-07-15 13:11:20
Click on image to get to dashboard

Sometimes you need to consider an assortment of data, and FRED’s dashboard tool lets you assemble and simultaneously view multiple economic variables. For example, the image above links to a dashboard of “stress test” indicators that help the Fed assess the resilience of banking institutions. As part the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, the Fed crafts hypothetical economic scenarios (e.g., a spike in interest rates or a sharp contraction in GDP) and then analyzes banks to see how they would hold up. To learn more about the Fed’s stress test methods, click here.

How this dashboard was created: Go to the Fed’s stress test website, which is linked above, to see the variables used. Search for these stress test variables (or close equivalents) in FRED. Create each graph and then select “Save Graph.” If you have a FRED account, you will be prompted to log in. If you do not, you must create an account. Once you’ve saved as many graphs as you’d like, go to “My Dashboards” and click the “Create” button. To add the saved graphs, use the “Saved Graphs” option under “Add Widget.” If you are logged into your FRED account, you can save a copy of the dashboard to your account and then customize it. To learn more about FRED dashboards, click here.

Suggested by Ian Tarr.

Inflation’s dual cores

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. core inflation (i.e., excluding food and energy) is about 1.75%. Overall inflation measures combine the prices of both goods and services, but these two categories do not always behave in the same way. The graph above shows annual changes in the consumer price index for core services (purple) and core commodities (red). For about three years after the end of the recession, prices for goods and services changed at about equal rates. But the inflation environment has become a bit more complex in recent years: In 2012, growth in commodities prices began to slow and eventually turned negative. In contrast, prices for services have continued to grow at close to 2.5%.

How this graph was created: Add the two series listed below and use the “Graph Settings” option to set “Graph type” to “Bar.” Make sure that “Stacking” is listed as “None.” Then set “Units” to “Percent Change from Year Ago” for each series. Change “Frequency” to “Quarterly” and “Aggregation Method” to “End of Period.”

Suggested by Ian Tarr.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CUSR0000SACL1E, CUSR0000SASLE

The changing distribution of house sales

[NOTE: Occasionally, data sources will discontinue a series, and that is the case here. ] 

How does the distribution of house sales change over time? FRED includes median and mean sales price data for single-family homes, which can give us a hint. The difference between the two series increases when a proportionally greater number of more-expensive houses are sold, for example. The graph above shows the two series, and it is difficult to see any changes in the difference between them: The lines look parallel through booms, busts, and seasonal fluctuations. (The higher prices in the summer and lower ones in the winter may come from both actual seasonal price fluctuations for equivalent houses and from the changing composition of the sold houses.)

The graph below shows the ratio of median to mean prices. We see, for example, that the ratio went down during the recent crisis and has more than recovered since. This movement is consistent with proportionally more high-end single-family houses being sold (or fewer low-ends ones), with a reversal around 2011.

[NOTE: Occasionally, data sources will discontinue a series, and that is the case here. ] 

How these graphs were created: For the first graph, go to the National Association of Realtors (under sources) and look for the Existing Home Sales release. Select the median series and then the mean series and add them to a graph with a click. Note that you can select single-family homes or all homes (including co-ops and condos), which will show very similar results. For the second graph, remove the mean series, but then add it back by choosing “Modify existing series 1.” Then use “Create Your Own Data Transformation” with formula a/b.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: HSFAVGUSM052N, HSFMEDUSM052N


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