Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

Uncertain times in Europe

If you’ve been following international news over the past decade or so, you’ve seen the European Union’s seemingly continuous struggle to define the various facets of its economic policy. Such policy uncertainty has effects on economic activity—especially investment. And we can quantify such uncertainty, as shown in the graph above, thanks to the work of Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steve Davis. Their work is based on the frequency of certain key words in newspapers and disagreements among economic forecasters. The graph pertains to Germany, the U.K., France, Italy, and Spain and definitely shows elevated levels of policy uncertainty since 2012, which rival and even exceed the levels during the financial crisis in 2007-08.

How this graph was created: Search for “economic policy uncertainty” and select the series for Europe (among several other uncertainty series available in FRED).

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: EUEPUINDXM

The many flavors of unemployment

How many people are unemployed? Before answering this question, you need to define unemployment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics offers six definitions, conveniently labeled U-1 through U-6, that are increasingly inclusive. What they have in common is they measure some aspect of labor underutilization. U-1 counts only those who have been unemployed for at least 15 weeks, which is usually (but not lately) a little longer than the average duration of an unemployment spell. Hence, this excludes short-term unemployment. U-2 uses a somewhat different concept: the percentage of those who are unemployed because they have lost a job or completed a temporary job. Some of them may be included in U-1. So U-2 counts workers in a precarious situation in the labor market, as they are more likely to find an unstable or unsatisfying job. U-3 is the traditionally reported unemployment rate, which counts people who are able to work, ready to work, and have looked for work in the past four weeks. U-4 takes U-3 and adds those who would like to work but have stopped looking—the so-called discouraged workers—because they believe there are no jobs for them. U-5 takes U-4 and adds those who are marginally attached to the labor market: those who, for any reason, are no longer searching for work. Finally, U-6 includes all of the above plus those who are working part-time but would prefer to work full-time.

How this graph was created: Go to the Alternative measures of labor underutilization release table (A-15) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation release. Select all (seasonally adjusted) series and click “Add to Graph.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: U1RATE, U2RATE, U4RATE, U5RATE, U6RATE, UNRATE

How likely is a recession? (And how fast is a forecast?)

Predicting a recession in real time is difficult, which is why one can make good money with a good forecast. Here, FRED offers one of many such forecasts: a recession probability index computed by Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger. This forecast is backed up by research the authors have published in the peer-reviewed journals International Economic Review and the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, with an early St. Louis Fed working paper added here for good measure. As the graph above shows, their forecasting method’s past performance is impressive; the predicted recession dates align well with the official NBER recession dates. Of course, it is difficult to compute any forecast in a timely fashion: One has to wait for the appropriate data to be released, and only then can one compute the forecast. In this case, that translates into a delay of about three months.

How this graph was created: Search for “recession,” and the first series shown should be “Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: RECPROUSM156N


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