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Posts tagged with: "CPIAUCSL"

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Comparing the assets of the rich, poor, and middle class

Data on the asset distribution across U.S. households

The FRED Blog has covered income and wealth before: for example, distribution of wage income, net worth, and assets. This post covers household assets, but compares them across groups: the top 1%, the 90-99%, the 50-90%, and the bottom 50%. FRED has data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s Survey of Consumer Finances, and the graph above shows the total assets for households in these four wealth/asset groups.

It’s clear from the graph above that the bottom half of households collectively hold significantly fewer assets than any of the three other groups. Those groups hold about the same order of magnitude in assets, but with populations of very different sizes (40%, 9%, and 1% of the total number of households).

We also see that, for these three groups, total assets have grown almost continuously, except for a dip in the past recession. Of course, this could be due simply to inflation and population growth…

So, the second graph does this adjustment. It shows that total assets have increased over time for all three groups, even after this rescaling.

The third graph offers a further adjustment by dividing each line by the size of the group. This gives us an idea of the relative magnitude of the assets per capita in each group. The differences are so large that we removed the legends to make more space for the graph. The poorest group is so low, it’s not visible. So we might as well express the assets of the three top groups as a multiple of the assets of the poorest 50%, which we do in the last graph. Beyond the stark differences between the groups, it’s quite obvious that the assets of the top 1% have increased faster than those of the other two groups since the past recession. In fact, they have almost doubled relative to the poorest 50%, from 139 times to 258 times at the apex in 2017:Q1, to 235 times now.

How these graphs were created: Start with the release table for Levels of Wealth by Wealth Percentile Groups, select the four first series, click “Add to Graph.” That’s the first graph. For the second, use the first and go to the “Edit Graph” panel. For each line, in the “Edit Line…” tab, use the “customize data” tool to search for and add the CPI series and then the population series, and apply formula a/b/c. Repeat for the three other lines. For the third graph, modify the formula to divide each by 0.01, 0.09, 0.4, and 0.5, respectively. From the “Format” tab, deselect legends and axis labels to free up some space. For the last graph, for the first three lines, add series “WFRBLB50081” and add /(d/.5) to the formula. Remove the fourth line by deleting each of its constituting series.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: B230RC0Q173SBEA, CPIAUCSL, WFRBLB50081, WFRBLN09027, WFRBLN40054, WFRBLT01000

How food and fuel prices fluctuate

Detailed prices from the CPI

The consumer price index (CPI) follows the price of a basket of goods. The goods in the basket are determined by the purchases of an “average” U.S. household. Each item is tracked at multiple locations and for numerous varieties. The data are then aggregated to form the CPI.

The CPI has been a part of FRED for quite some time (since the early days if not the very beginning). FRED also offers some finer slices of consumer price data. The graph includes three examples: unleaded gasoline, peppers, and tomatoes. These are still aggregates, as the tracked prices come from many locations and, for tomatoes at least, across the various brands, varieties, and other ways of differentiating products.

What immediately gets our attention is how dynamic these lines are. The prices for these items change a lot and with little notice, which is why monetary policymakers in general prefer to look at price indices that exclude food and energy: Volatility can hide the bigger picture of inflation.

To reveal the extent of this volatility, we constructed the graph below, which compares the general CPI and the CPI without food and energy. For the latter, we even included the series without seasonal adjustment to demonstrate that seasonal adjustment does not remove the noise that policymakers are worried about.

How these graphs were created: For the first graph, start from the Average Price Data release table, check the items you want displayed, and click “Add to Graph.” For the second graph, start from the CPI graph and go to the “Edit Graph” panel. From there, open the “Add Line” tab and search for “CPI less food and energy”; add the monthly seasonally adjusted series. Repeat for the not seasonally adjusted series. Finally, adjust the units to “Percent Change from Year Ago” and click “Copy to All.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: APU0000712311, APU0000712406, APU000074714, CPIAUCSL, CPILFENS, CPILFESL

Comovements in monetary policy

Revealing international correlations with FRED

Reporters and Fed watchers in the U.S. usually think about monetary policy in a domestic framework. But because business conditions, including commodity prices, are correlated internationally, central banks tend to move their policy rates up and down together and their inflation and interest rates tend to be correlated. FRED makes it easy to see these international comovements of macro and policy variables.

The first graph shows comovement in inflation rates from 1970 to the present for four economies: the U.S., Japan, the U.K., and the euro area. Inflation rose in the 1970s as central banks failed to combat the effects of commodity price increases on the general price level and inflation expectations became established.

Before the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, almost all central banks in the developed world implemented monetary policy mainly by buying and selling short-term bonds to influence short-term interest rates or “policy rates.” The second graph shows the comovement in these policy rates from 1970 to the present for the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England: These central banks first hiked their policy rates in the 1979-1981 period to combat inflation and were then able to reduce those rates in the 1980s after inflation fell.

The second graph also shows that the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan lowered their short-term interest rates to zero during the Financial Crisis. To maintain price stability and continue to stimulate their economies, they turned to “unconventional” monetary policies that included buying long-term bonds to reduce long-term interest rates.

The value of the assets of central banks is one (albeit imperfect) way of measuring the monetary stimulus of unconventional policy. The third graph shows the assets of four central banks using an index for their values in 2008. The index value, rather than the value in each respective currency, allows a rough but easy comparison of the relative monetary stimulus. Central bank asset holdings have all increased greatly over the past decades. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England had the first large responses in 2008-2009. The Bank of Japan began to accumulate assets in earnest starting in 2013. And the European Central Bank did likewise starting in 2015.

How these graphs were created: First graph: Search for “consumer price index for all urban consumers,” select the seasonally adjusted monthly version of the appropriate series, and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel’s “Add Line” tab, add the monthly versions of the three series “Consumer Price Index of All Items in Japan,” “Consumer Price Index of All Items in the United Kingdom,” and “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: All Items for Euro Area (19 Countries).” For each of these four lines, change the units to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Lastly, change the start date to 1970-01-01.
Second graph: Search for “effective federal funds rate,” select the appropriate monthly series, and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel’s “Add Line” tab, add the monthly versions of the two series “Immediate Rates: Less than 24 hours: Central Bank Rates for Japan” and “Bank of England Policy Rate in the United Kingdom.” Lastly, change the start date to 1970-01-01.
Third graph: Search for “All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets,” select the appropriate series, and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel’s “Add Line” tab, add the three series “Bank of Japan: Total Assets for Japan,” “Total Central Bank Assets for United Kingdom,” and “Central Bank Assets for Euro Area (11-19 Countries).” For each of these four lines, change the units to “Index (Scale value to 100 for chosen date)” and select the date 2008-01-01. Lastly, change the start date to 2004-01-01.

Suggested by Chris Neely.

View on FRED, series used in this post: BOERUKM, CP0000EZ19M086NEST, CPIAUCSL, ECBASSETS, FEDFUNDS, GBRCPIALLMINMEI, IRSTCB01JPM156N, JPNASSETS, JPNCPIALLMINMEI, UKASSETS, WALCL


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