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Posts tagged with: "UNRATE"

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The many flavors of unemployment

How many people are unemployed? Before answering this question, you need to define unemployment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics offers six definitions, conveniently labeled U-1 through U-6, that are increasingly inclusive. What they have in common is they measure some aspect of labor underutilization. U-1 counts only those who have been unemployed for at least 15 weeks, which is usually (but not lately) a little longer than the average duration of an unemployment spell. Hence, this excludes short-term unemployment. U-2 uses a somewhat different concept: the percentage of those who are unemployed because they have lost a job or completed a temporary job. Some of them may be included in U-1. So U-2 counts workers in a precarious situation in the labor market, as they are more likely to find an unstable or unsatisfying job. U-3 is the traditionally reported unemployment rate, which counts people who are able to work, ready to work, and have looked for work in the past four weeks. U-4 takes U-3 and adds those who would like to work but have stopped looking—the so-called discouraged workers—because they believe there are no jobs for them. U-5 takes U-4 and adds those who are marginally attached to the labor market: those who, for any reason, are no longer searching for work. Finally, U-6 includes all of the above plus those who are working part-time but would prefer to work full-time.

How this graph was created: Go to the Alternative measures of labor underutilization release table (A-15) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation release. Select all (seasonally adjusted) series and click “Add to Graph.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: U1RATE, U2RATE, U4RATE, U5RATE, U6RATE, UNRATE

How fast has the unemployment rate declined?

One way to compare recessions is to compare their unemployment rates, and the graph above includes the civilian unemployment rate for the four most recent business cycles. In this case, index values are used to show how the rate for each cycle changed in comparison with the highest rate that occurred in that cycle. (The graph shows each cycle’s unemployment rate relative to the highest rate in that cycle, which has an index value of 100.) None of the four rates seem to stand out; they all follow a similar path downward. But we know that the last cycle’s unemployment rate went higher than any of the others. So, that must mean the most recent unemployment rate declined faster in absolute terms (the actual percentage unemployment rate) because it hit a higher point than any of the other rates but still had a relative decline similar to the other rates.

How this graph was created: Find the “Civilian Unemployment Rate,” then select “Index (Scale value to 100 for chose period)” under Units. Then choose the data to match the highest unemployment rate in the previous cycle. Finally, check “Display integer periods” with values 0 and +60. Add the civilian unemployment rate three more times to the graph (it is preselected) while including the different dates that correspond to the highest value in each of these three earlier cycles.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: UNRATE

What’s the “normal” unemployment rate?

As the U.S. unemployment rate inches down, it seems reasonable to ask when it will be back to normal. One measure of “normal” is the natural rate of unemployment, sometimes referred to as NAIRU, published by the Congressional Budget Office. This measure is meant to contain all relevant information except for cyclical factors in the unemployment rate. Thus, when there is no difference between the NAIRU and the standard unemployment rate, the standard unemployment rate should be back to normal. Note that the natural rate is calculated, not measured, and thus is subject to the assumptions made. Some of those assumptions relate to whether structural factors should be taken into account. This question led (temporarily) to two different natural rates during the previous recession.

How this graph was created: Search for NAIRU, select both series, and add them to a graph. Then add the civilian unemployment rate. Finally, change the end date to the current date.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: NROU, NROUST, UNRATE


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