The takeaway

When tariffs were relatively stable, prices for durable goods such as appliances, electronics, and furniture were declining by as much as 3% year-over-year. But in 2025, the effective tariff rate surged to over 11% and durable goods prices began increasing by 2% to 3%.

Dramatic shifts in durable goods prices and trade policy

In our FRED graph above, the solid blue line shows the year-over-year percent change in durable goods prices, and the dashed green line shows the effective tariff rate on imports. (Btw, the effective tariff rate is total tariff revenue collected by the government divided by the total value of all imported goods.)

For most of the period shown, durable goods prices were actually falling. Deflation was the norm from mid-2023 through early 2025, with prices declining by as much as 3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, effective tariffs remained relatively stable at around 2.5% through 2024.

The picture changed sharply in 2025. The effective tariff rate surged from roughly 2.5% to over 11%, more than quadrupling in about a year. Shortly after, durable goods deflation reversed course, from declines to increases of around 2% to 3% by early 2026.

While the timing is striking, this relationship is complex: Durable goods prices reflect many factors beyond import tariffs. Still, the coinciding tariff spike and price acceleration suggest import taxes may be playing a role in ending the deflation consumers experienced with durable goods such as appliances, electronics, and furniture.

The current trend

Notably, effective tariffs appear to have peaked in late 2025 and have since begun declining. If this trend continues, we could see a corresponding moderation in durable goods inflation and potentially even a return to the price declines that characterized the earlier period.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Personal consumption expenditures: Durable goods (chain-type price index).” Click “Edit Graph” and change the units to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Next, click “Add Line,” search for and select “Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties,” and click “Add Data Series.” Click “Edit Graph,” use “Customize data” to search for “Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods,” and click “Add.” Input the formula a/b*100 and click “Apply.”

Suggested by Maximiliano Dvorkin and Melanie LeTourneau.