The FRED Blog has discussed why employment in retail and postal services peak around the Christmas holidays. Today we tap into a 2018 research piece from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to discuss why construction employment may follow different patterns across states.
Our FRED graph above shows monthly employment data reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The solid lines are the numbers (in thousands) of employed workers in construction between May 2016 and June 2026 in two states: Kentucky in purple and Minnesota in blue. The dashed lines are the same employment figures adjusted for the seasonal impact of factors, such as weather, that affect overall economic activity in that industry. We picked those two states to make our point because they have markedly different weather during the winter and summer months.
Note there are far more construction employees in Minnesota than in Kentucky because the Northern state is more populous than the Southern / Midwestern state. Given this size difference, comparing annual employment peaks and throughs between states isn’t easy or straightforward.
To better tell the story behind the numbers, we created a second FRED graph that plots the size of the seasonal changes in employment as a fraction of the seasonally adjusted employment figures between May 2016 and June 2026. This graph shows similar overall patterns for both states: increases through August and declines until February, but a much wider seasonal range in Minnesota than in Kentucky. (That is, much higher highs and much lower lows for Minnesota.) This difference could be related to the ability to work through more of the winter months in the South relative to the North.
If you want to dive further into these patterns, check out the state-level employment data by industry in FRED.
How these graphs were created: Search FRED for “All Employees: Construction in Minnesota” and find the seasonally adjusted series (MNCONS). Click “Edit Graph” and navigate to the “Add Line” tab. Search for “All Employees: Construction in Minnesota” and find the non-seasonally adjusted series (MNCONSN) and click “Add Data Series.” Repeat with the seasonally adjusted (KYCONS) and not seasonally adjusted (KYCONSN) series for “All Employees: Construction in Kentucky” to complete the graph.
Suggested by Alison Booth and Diego Mendez-Carbajo.
