The FRED® Blog

What’s the “normal” unemployment rate?

As the U.S. unemployment rate inches down, it seems reasonable to ask when it will be back to normal. One measure of “normal” is the natural rate of unemployment, sometimes referred to as NAIRU, published by the Congressional Budget Office. This measure is meant to contain all relevant information except for cyclical factors in the unemployment rate. Thus, when there is no difference between the NAIRU and the standard unemployment rate, the standard unemployment rate should be back to normal. Note that the natural rate is calculated, not measured, and thus is subject to the assumptions made. Some of those assumptions relate to whether structural factors should be taken into account. This question led (temporarily) to two different natural rates during the previous recession.

How this graph was created: Search for NAIRU, select both series, and add them to a graph. Then add the civilian unemployment rate. Finally, change the end date to the current date.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: NROU, NROUST, UNRATE

Quitters, public and private

St. Louis Fed economist David Wiczer recently assessed the labor landscape by comparing rates of workers quitting their jobs with rates of workers being let go. This graph takes a simpler view and shows the rates of workers quitting in the public and private sectors. The private-sector rate is obviously higher; in July 2005, for example, the private-sector rate was 460 percent of the public-sector rate.

Not surprisingly, though, the rates track each other pretty closely: Any worker would be more inclined to quit a job when economic prospects are good and less inclined when they’re not so good. But the data behind this graph show that the gap between the rates has narrowed a bit since the recent recession. From December 2000 to June 2009, the private-sector rate was on average about 350 percent of the public-sector rate; since then, the gap has fallen to about 320 percent. The graph does show a recent rise in the private-sector quit rate, however, so the gap may be increasing.

How this graph was created: Select the first series, “Quits: Total Private,” and then add the second series, “Quits: Government.” Both series shown here are seasonally adjusted monthly rates. You can also search for specific industries (e.g., construction or manufacturing) and other measures (e.g., layoffs and discharges).

Suggested by George Fortier.

View on FRED, series used in this post: JTS1000QUR, JTS9000QUR


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