Federal Reserve Economic Data

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The state of education…or, rather, the education of states

GeoFRED can help us track aspects of education, which can vary significantly among U.S. states. This map shows the fraction of those 25 years or older who have completed a bachelor’s degree. The data are from 2012 (the last year the Census Bureau published such statistics) for the 50 states plus Washington, DC. Darker shades represent a higher fraction of those with a bachelor’s degree.

Clearly, there are large disparities in educational attainment: Our nation’s capital takes the cake, with 53% of residents 25 years or older having completed a bachelor’s degree. As for the states, Massachusetts tops the list with 39.3%, while Mississippi is at the other end of the spectrum with 20.7%.

States with a larger share of college graduates seem to cluster on the northeast coast (e.g., New York has 33.4%) and the west coast (e.g., Washington has 31.7%). States with lower educational attainment form a crescent shape from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. Colorado is an exception, with 37.5% despite its distance from the coasts; it’s second only to Massachusetts.

How this map was created: The original post referenced an interactive map from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides a replacement map from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Ana Maria Santacreu and Heting Zhu.

View on FRED, series used in this post: GCT1502AK, GCT1502US, GCT1502WY

Trends in capacity utilization around the world

The capacity utilization rate of a country is constructed as the percentage of resources (i.e., labor and capital) used by corporations and factories to produce enough finished goods to meet demand. In normal times, factories tend to use around 80% of their available productive resources. (Want to learn more?)

The graph above shows the evolution of capacity utilization in the U.S. (light blue), Brazil (red), the U.K. (green), and Germany (purple) from 2000:Q1 to 2017:Q3 at a quarterly frequency. During this period, the average capacity utilization in the U.S. was the lowest in our sample, and it was below 80% most of the time. The average capacity utilization was highest in Germany, with an average of 85% (outside of recessions).

During the Great Recession, all countries experienced a sharp decrease in their capacity utilization. Brazil experienced the shortest decline, which occurred later than in the developed economies. This has often been referred to as “decoupling” of developing countries, which, despite being integrated in the global economy, have been more resilient to the crisis. In the case of Brazil, capacity utilization decreased from 85.1% in 2008:Q3 to 77.4% in 2009:Q1. In the U.S., it decreased from 80.4% in 2008:Q1 to 67.3% in 2009:Q2. After the crisis, capacity utilization in all countries except the U.S. went back to normal. Indeed, for the last two and a half years of the sample, capacity utilization has been declining in the U.S. This is also the case in Brazil. This trend contrasts with the one observed in Germany and the U.K., where capacity utilization has been increasing over much of the same period.

Low capacity utilization usually implies that shortages, bottlenecks, and inflation are not issues in most industries. This allows industries to increase manufacturing production without incurring significantly higher production costs. The data suggest that this is the case in the U.S. In the U.K. and Germany, however, demand seems to have picked up in the past two years, which could lead to an increase in prices in the European countries.

How this graph was created: Go to FRED and search for “Business Tendency Surveys for Manufacturing: Capacity Utilization: Rate of Capacity Utilization: European Commission and National Indicators for Brazil.” Go to “Edit Graph,” select “Add Line,” and add “Business Tendency Surveys for Manufacturing: Capacity Utilization: Rate of Capacity Utilization: European Commission and National Indicators for the United Kingdom.” Repeat to add Germany and the U.S. Go to “Edit Graph,” select “Format,” and choose “Recession shading” to be “On.”

Suggested by Ana Maria Santacreu and Heting Zhu.

View on FRED, series used in this post: BSCURT02BRM160S, BSCURT02DEQ160S, BSCURT02GBQ160S, BSCURT02USQ160S

Money makes the world go round…and goes round the world

The impact of migration and remittances

According to the World Bank, 3.4% of the world’s population lives outside their nation of birth. For many, migration serves as a means of improving economic well-being, escaping violence and persecution, or finding education and employment. Although immigrants frequently separate from friends and family who remain in their place of origin, they often stay connected. In fact, those living abroad sent over $570 billion to their home countries in 2016, which is more than triple the amount of official worldwide development aid, according to the Pew Research Center.

The map above shows the proportion of remittance inflows to GDP for nations around the world in 2015. Several factors affect the data, which are based on two variables: the size of the economy and the magnitude of remittance inflows. Thus, smaller, poorer nations with large populations living abroad are likely to have larger remittance inflows-to-GDP ratios.

The size of a nation’s migrant population depends in part on the policies of other nations. Given that the U.S. is the largest destination for immigrants worldwide, U.S. policies, such as offering temporary protected status (TPS) to migrants from certain nations, can substantially affect the magnitude of remittance inflows. TPS is given to migrants from nations experiencing natural disaster or violent conflict and grants the right to work and remain in the U.S. until the status expires.

Ten countries currently have TPS, and FRED data are available for 7 of them. For Nepal, Haiti, Honduras, and El Salvador, remittances amount to more than 16% of GDP. Of the 40 nations with the highest remittance inflow-to-GDP ratios, 12 are, have been, or are requesting to be covered by TPS. Of the 40 nations with the lowest remittance inflow-to-GDP ratios, only 2 are or were covered by TPS.

The impact of migration policy and remittance inflows may seem small, but a study found that a 10% increase in per capita remittance inflows leads to an average decrease of 3.5% in the number of people living in poverty in the home country. The same study found that “a 10% increase in the share of international [e]migrants in a country’s population will lead to a 2.1% decline in the share of people living on less than $1.00 per person per day.” Through entrepreneurship, cultural exchange, and employment, emigrants can prove beneficial to the economies of their home countries. Look for future posts that examine the effects on the host country.

How this map was created: The original post referenced an interactive map from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides a replacement map from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Maria Hyrc and Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: DDOI11ALA156NWDB, DDOI11USA156NWDB, DDOI11ZWA156NWDB


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