Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

The Great Recession’s economic sneezes, colds, and hiccups

An international comparison of unemployment rates

The Great Recession (December 2007—June 2009 in the U.S.) impacted unemployment rates very differently across countries. The graph above shows four different countries with noticeable patterns. In each country, unemployment increased during the course of the recession, with the U.S. recession marked by a gray bar. In the U.S. and Japan, the increase was from a relatively low level (below 5%); in France and Germany, however, the unemployment rate at the start of the recession was higher (above 7.5%).

In the U.S., the unemployment rate more than doubled, while in Japan the increase was relatively moderate. In the aftermath of the recession, both these countries experienced long transitions back to their pre-recession level of unemployment: Japan waited until 2013 and the U.S. until 2015. In France, the unemployment rate behaved very differently: It increased by more than 2 percentage points during the recession, but has not exhibited any sign of convergence back to its pre-recession level since then. In fact, it increased even more in 2012 and 2013. Germany presents yet another pattern: After increasing slightly during the recession, the unemployment rate continued on a downward trend that had started back in 2005. The German unemployment rate has now reached a level that’s well below its pre-recession level and is comparable to that of Japan and the U.S.

How this graph was created: In FRED, search for and select “Harmonized Unemployment Rate: Total: All Persons for United States.” From the “Edit Graph” section, select the “Add Line” tab, add “Harmonized Unemployment Rate: Total: All Persons for Japan.” Repeat for “Harmonized Unemployment Rate: Total: All Persons for France” and “Harmonized Unemployment Rate: Total: All Persons for Germany.”

Suggested by Guillaume Vandenbroucke and Heting Zhu.

View on FRED, series used in this post: LRHUTTTTDEM156S, LRHUTTTTFRM156S, LRHUTTTTJPM156S, LRHUTTTTUSQ156S

Go west, young worker! (Or maybe south)

Examining 40 years of internal U.S. labor migration

In 1876, as folks were heading west to “grow with the country,” the Transcontinental Express made a record 83-hour train trip from New York City to San Francisco. FRED’s data don’t typically go back that far, but the graph here does show how the U.S. labor force has moved around the country since 1976.

Clearly, there have been many types of positive and negative migration over the country’s history. The graph sheds light on one specific measure: the share of the U.S. labor force residing in each of the four Census regions. Note that these are proportions, so a decrease in a share may still mean an increase in that region’s labor force, as the nation’s population has increased over time. The graph shows that two regions have consistently increased their shares at the expense of the shares of the other two regions. Apparently, folks are still heading west, but also south. The West has had the largest percentage increase over the past 40 years, and the South’s increase is nearly as large: from 18.3% to 23.9% and from 31.6% to 36.9%, respectively. The shares of the labor force in the Northeast and the Midwest have decreased: from 22.9% to 17.6% and from 27.2% to 21.6%, respectively. As this centuries-long migration continues, FRED will continue to provide the historical data for you.

How this graph was created: After searching for “labor force,” look to the the left sidebar to select geography type “Census region.” Check the four series (either seasonally adjusted or not), and click on “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” menu’s “Format” tab, choose graph type “Area,” stacking “Percent,” and recession shading “Off.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CMWRLFN, CNERLFN, CSOULFN, CWSTLFN

Losing your job doesn’t always gain you unemployment benefits

Requirements and trends behind unemployment insurance

Being unemployed does not guarantee that you’ll receive benefits from your local unemployment insurance program. Typically, there are eligibility criteria, such as previous work requirements, waiting periods, eligibility periods, and asset tests. These criteria can be stringent, depending on the political choices behind them. The graph above compares the U.S. unemployment rate with the segment of the labor force receiving unemployment insurance benefits. It is very clear that, most of the time, only a minority of the unemployed receive benefits.

The graph below focuses on that segment, showing the proportion of the unemployed that receives insurance benefits. Obviously, there are cyclical variations: At the start of a recession, proportionally more unemployed haven’t yet run out of eligibility. There also appears to be a longer-run trend that has been decreasing the segment of those eligible for benefits.

Update: The insurance claim numbers cover those who get regular state unemployment insurance benefits. There are also those who get benefits under the extended benefit and the emergency unemployment compensation programs, whose proportions tends to be higher during recessions. See this article for an analysis of these details.

How these graphs were created: Search for “unemployment insurance claims” and click on the series. From the “Edit Graph” section, add the “civilian labor force” series and click on “Apply.” Then enter formula a/b/10 (where the 10 makes it a percentage). Then open the “Add Line” tab and search for the unemployment rate; take the monthly, seasonally adjusted series. That’s the first graph. For the second, remove the line you just added, but add that series to the first line and apply formula a/b/c*10.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CCSA, CLF16OV, UNRATE


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