The FRED® Blog

A review of labor market conditions

The U.S. unemployment rate stands at 4.3 percent, a value slightly lower than at the peak of the expansion in 2007. This is a sign of a very healthy labor market. The question is to what extent do other indicators of labor market health paint a similar picture.

FRED has recently added several data series that capture various measures of labor market tightness. A very tight labor market means that employers have a harder time filling open positions because most workers are employed and fewer are looking for jobs. There are several ways to capture labor market tightness: In the following graphs, we present a few of them and compare their evolution before and after the previous recession.

The first graph shows the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio and the quits rate. The blue line (left axis) is the number of vacancies per unemployed worker. When the economy enters recession, this measure declines as the number of unemployed workers increases and the vacancies per unemployed worker decrease. A low number of vacancies per unemployed worker is a sign of slack in the labor market. After the 2007-09 recession, this ratio increased at a slow pace until 2014, when it increased sharply and surpassed its pre-recession high. The red line (right axis) is the number of quits per employed worker. Similar to the vacancy ratio, this indicator declines in recessionary periods. Within the past few months the quit rate has recovered to pre-recession levels.

The second graph shows the mean level of vacancy duration and an index of recruiting intensity per vacancy. In a tight labor market, employers will have to look harder, or more intensely, to fill open positions as the number of unemployed candidates is reduced. Similarly, vacancy durations will be higher as recruiting efforts take longer in a tight labor market. Since the 2007-09 recession, vacancy durations have surpassed pre-recession levels, reaching a series high of 29.6 business days per vacancy in April 2016. The recruiting intensity index is close to its pre-recession level, but has not increased as quickly as vacancy durations.

Overall, the different indicators of labor market conditions analyzed here point to a healthy recovery of the U.S. labor market.

How these graphs were created: Top graph: Search for “Vacancy to Unemployment Ratio” in FRED and graph the series with the copyright symbol in the title (copyrighted by DHI Group Inc. and Dr. Steven J. Davis). Then click the orange “Edit Graph” button and add a line using the middle button on the top of the menu that appears to the right. Search for “Quits Rate” in the box and add the series with the copyright symbol. Finally, click the “Format” button on the menu and below Line 2 select the option to change the y-axis position to the right. Bottom graph: Repeat these steps, but use DHI-DFH Mean Vacancy Duration and DHI-DFH Index of Recruiting Intensity per Vacancy.

Suggested by Maximiliano Dvorkin and Hannah Shell.

View on FRED, series used in this post: DHIDFHIRIPV, DHIDFHMVDM, DHIDFHQTRT, DHIDFHVTUR

Regional price parities

How the cost of living differs across states

A well-known fact in the ordinary business of life is that the value of money doesn’t stay the same: The amount of goods and services you can buy with $100 today is far less than what you could buy 30 years ago. A somewhat similar comparison can be made about the purchasing power of $100 in different places. The amount of goods and services you can buy in a developed country, such as the United States, is far less than what you can buy in a developing country, such as India. Here, we analyze this latter phenomenon but within the United States.

Regional price parities (RPPs) measure the differences in the price levels of goods and services across states and metropolitan areas for a given year. RPPs are expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for each year, so RPPs higher than 100 represent state prices higher than the national average and vice versa. The map shows the price parities in 2015 for each U.S. state. In general, price levels are lower in the middle section of the country and get higher on the east and west coasts.

In 2015, Hawaii’s RPP (118.8) was higher than that of any state. The other locations with the highest RPPs were District of Columbia (117.0), New York (115.3), California (113.4), and New Jersey (113.4). Kentucky (88.6), South Dakota (88.2), Arkansas (87.4), Alabama (86.8), and Mississippi (86.2) had the lowest RPPs among the states. States with RPPs closest to the national average price level were Vermont (101.6), Delaware (100.4), Illinois (99.7), Florida (99.5), and Oregon (99.2).

RPPs are important because they help inform the purchasing power behind a person’s income in different areas of the country. For example, an income of $47,520 in Hawaii has the equivalent purchasing power of an income of $36,480 in Mississippi because both of these incomes divided by the state’s RPP equal $40,000.

How this map was created: The original post referenced an interactive map from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides a replacement map from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Maximiliano Dvorkin and Hannah Shell.

How much do Treasuries tell us about recessions?

Yield spreads and economic conditions

Can shifts in the Treasury yield spread predict economic downturns? A common belief is that widening spreads indicate stable economic conditions for the near future—as reflected by market expectations about future interest rates and inflation. On the other hand, narrowing spreads (including negative spreads) may signal worsening conditions. Data in FRED can shed some light on how well this concept has held up in the past two decades.

The graph above shows that yield spreads between the 10- and 2-year notes fell to a low of -0.41 percentage points in April 2000: This was in line with the worsening economic conditions and the recession from March to November 2001. In November 2006, yield spreads between these notes dropped down again to a valley of -0.15 percentage points. And, again, this development was followed by the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. So, it seems the theory that recessions follow negative yield spreads does happen to match the economic data. Despite this recent pattern in U.S. Treasury bill spreads, though, we cannot confidently assert that negative spreads predict recessions. To classify spreads as strong indicators, we’d need much larger datasets—including longer periods and other economies. So, the examination of bond yield spreads continues…

How this graph was created: Search for “10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year”; select “line” as the format and “monthly” as the frequency. Set the starting date as “1997-05-01” and the ending date as “2017-05-01.”

Suggested by Wei (Wilson) Wang.

View on FRED, series used in this post: T10Y2YM


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