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Just one word: Plastics

Relative importance weights of the components of industrial production: Part 2

Actually, this post is not about just one word. There are at least four: plastics, yes, but also textiles, electricity, and ice cream.

As we discussed in the previous post, many sectors of the economy, with their specific products and processes, contribute to the nation’s overall industrial production. This graph traces the relative contributions of four more components from FRED’s 322 series in this category.

Over the past 45 years shown in the graph, the production of plastics has grown in importance pretty consistently; someone in, say, 1967 who invested in that industry might have seen a nice return. With some peaks and valleys, electric power generation has become demonstrably more important, too. And its growth has been largely countercyclical—that is, it revs up through each postwar recession. Textile mills, on the other hand, have been declining in importance in U.S. industrial production for the entire time this data series has been calculated.

And what to make of ice cream? The previous post traced the progress of cheese, another wonderful edible good. And just like cheese, ice cream is a very small part of U.S. industrial production but its degree of importance has remained deliciously tried and true (though these series are seasonally adjusted, which matters most for ice cream).

How this graph was created: Search for “Relative Importance Weights”: As noted above, you’ll find 322 series to choose from. Check the measures you want and click “Add to Graph.”

Suggested by George Fortier.

View on FRED, series used in this post: RIWG22111S, RIWG313S, RIWG3261S, RIWN31152S

Newspapers are still more important than cheese

Relative importance weights of the components of industrial production: Part 1

Many sectors of the economy, with their specific products and processes, contribute to the nation’s overall industrial production. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides data on these components in their G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release. As they state, these values are “estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth.” The graph above covers four specific components on the smaller end of the scale: newspaper publishing, cheese, tobacco, and fruit and vegetable processing. (FRED offers 322 series in this category.) Again, to be clear, these data measure the raw volume of goods that contribute to industrial production—not to health, wealth, or quality of life.

Over the past 45 years, the contributions of these components have changed—drastically, in some cases. From the late 1970s through the late 1980s, for example, newspaper publishing enjoyed prominence at the top of this list. But its contribution to this index has never been lower than it is today. Tobacco’s contribution surged to the top in the early 1990s and again in the early 2000s and is now neck and neck with fruits and vegetables. Cheese continues its quiet but rock-steady course at the bottom of this list.

How this graph was created: Search for “Relative Importance Weights”: As noted above, you’ll find 322 series to choose from. Check the measures you want and click “Add to Graph.”

Suggested by George Fortier.

View on FRED, series used in this post: RIWG3114S, RIWG3122S, RIWG51111S, RIWN311513S

Are household debt and student debt exploding?

On the importance of properly deflating

The graph above shows two series related to household debt that have received a great deal of attention lately: consumer credit (mostly lines of credit and credit cards) and student loans. These series show stark increases especially in recent years. But one has to be careful before jumping to conclusions, as the eye may be deceived here. First, the student loans shown here are only those that come directly from the federal government, and that specific program was introduced in 1994. So part of the increase is simply this program ramping up. But more importantly, one has to consider the important factors for the time period shown here: overall prices increased, population grew, and real incomes increased as well. Thus, it could be that these graphs simply show the increases in these three factors and nothing else.

To make things clearer, we need to divide by a measure that also increases along with these three factors and thus represents the size of the economy over the years. One popular candidate for this is nominal (that is, not real) GDP. It accounts for price, population, and productivity growth. The graph below is the same as the above, except that both series are divided by nominal GDP. The new graph still shows an increase for both series, but it’s not as dramatic. It also has the advantage of providing a frame of reference for the numbers: Total outstanding consumer credit currently amounts to about 20% of national income, and student debt is 6%. Whether this is excessive is open to debate. But one should focus on the data in percentages, not in billions of dollars.

How these graphs were created: Search for “consumer credit” and click on the desired series. Once you have the graph, go to the “Edit Graph” section and open the “Add Line” panel. Search for “student loans” and take the series with a longer time range. Apply formula a/1000 so that the units match. You have now the first graph. For the second, add a series to each line by searching for “GDP” (do not take real GDP) and apply formulas a/b and a/b/1000, respectively.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: FGCCSAQ027S, GDP, HCCSDODNS


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