The FRED® Blog

Government transfers to households: From 1947 to 1966 to now

One thing governments do is redistribute wealth from some citizens to others. Some of these transfers are explicitly captured in the system of national accounts, and the graph includes the five largest categories. It’s striking how the composition of these transfers has changed. The data start in 1947, so it’s no surprise the support of WWII veterans took the lion’s share for the first years. The number of veterans eligible for benefits declined as social security progressively expanded. In 1966, Medicaid and Medicare were introduced, and we see their shares slowly increasing. Today, social security benefits claim the largest share of government transfers: 40%. Medicare claims 29%,  Medicaid claims 25%, unemployment insurance benefits claim 1%, and veterans’ benefits claim 4%.

How this graph was created: These national accounts data can be found in the personal income release table. Check these five series and click on “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, go to the “Format” tab to choose “Area” as the type of graph and “Percent” as the type of stacking for the graph. [NOTE: This stacked area graph displays each of the series as a percent of the total of all five series shown here. As the y-axis label indicates, the original units of the series are billions of dollars.]

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: W729RC1Q027SBEA, W823RC1Q027SBEA, W824RC1Q027SBEA, W825RC1Q027SBEA, W826RC1Q027SBEA

Friction in oil markets

The graph shows the price of a barrel of oil. Two types, to be exact: The blue line shows West Texas Intermediate (WTI) quality oil at delivery in Cushing, Oklahoma, a significant pipeline hub. The red line shows oil from the North Sea, referred to as Brent Crude. The two lines are typically very close to each other, with Brent being about $3 cheaper because of its slightly different characteristics and transportation costs. But things change for the years 2011 to 2014: WTI is much cheaper—up to $26 cheaper. What happened? Many factors may have contributed to this phenomenon, the most likely being the increased extraction of tar sands in Alberta, Canada, and a boom in oil extraction through fracking in the interior U.S. This glut overwhelmed the transport infrastructure and made it difficult to move all this oil to destination. Once more pipelines came online and the railroad transport toward the East Coast expanded, the price differential returned to normal, with relatively frictionless arbitrage between the various oil types and thus similar prices. This means that the different blends can be traded on the market as close substitutes while being easily accessible, and this makes their prices converge toward each other.

How this graph was created: Search for “crude oil price,” select the two series, and click on “Add to Graph.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: DCOILBRENTEU, DCOILWTICO

Wages with benefits

Nominal wages generally increase, but the picture is mixed for real wages. The green line in the top graph shows real wage growth, which is negative a fair amount of the time. Bursts in inflation can counteract the usually small increases in nominal wages. In fact, the strong growth of real wages at the end of the past recession is mostly due to a short episode of deflation.

But wages aren’t the whole story. A job usually also involves other types of compensation, such as the employer’s contribution to retirement pensions, health and life insurance, paid vacation and other leave, and any taxes the employer pays on these benefits. These benefits are now a substantial part of the cost of an employee, and they appear to be growing. The top graph shows that labor compensation growth is frequently higher than real wage growth. We can make this point more clearly by using index values: In the bottom graph, we set both series at 100 in 1970 and let them run. Real compensation growth is significantly higher: the 60% increase looks much better than the 3% increase for real wages.

How these graphs were created: Search for “real compensation” and click on the series shown. In the “Edit Graph” panel, add a new line by searching for “hourly earnings.” Then, within the same panel, add a series by searching for “CPI.” Apply formula a/b to the second line to make earnings real. For the first graph, set units for both lines to “Percent Change from Year Ago”; for the second line, you do this at the bottom of the panel. For the second graph, the selected units are “Index (scale value to 100 for chosen period)”; set the date as 1970-01-01.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: AHETPI, CPIAUCSL, RCPHBS


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