The FRED® Blog

The speed of Internet adoption

FRED recently added Internet usage data from the World Bank. The Internet was initially available only to the richest households who could afford both a computer and the connection. It has democratized considerably since, although the poorest still cannot afford it. The Internet was invented in the U.S., so it’s no surprise that its use became widespread in this country before it did elsewhere. The graph shows, however, that other countries have been catching up and even overtaking the U.S. It also shows that China and India are developing rapidly. At some point in the future, the Internet will be like refrigerators and televisions: Everyone will have access to it, except those who purposefully abstain from it.

How this graph was created: Search for “Internet” and the country name to find the series and then add it to the graph.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: ITNETUSERP2CHN, ITNETUSERP2DEU, ITNETUSERP2IND, ITNETUSERP2KOR, ITNETUSERP2USA

CPI component volatility

Most people recognize the CPI (consumer price index) as a common measure of U.S. inflation. But the CPI sometimes seems at odds with the personal experiences of some consumers, who often point out that particular goods have become more expensive than the CPI seems to imply. This incongruity occurs mostly because the CPI is an index that covers many products; the variations in prices are averaged out when forming the aggregate CPI. Case in point: We show here how price fluctuations increase as the range of products narrows. The graph shows the inflation rate for the CPI covering all items (blue line), which is quite stable. But compare this with energy prices (red line), which fluctuate wildly. Narrow down energy prices to just gasoline (green line) and you find even more volatility. CPI data even include particular types of gasoline for particular regions, which display even more volatility (purple line). It is true that the volatility of energy prices is most stark, but similar trends do appear for other categories as well.

How this graph was created: Search for the various series and add them to a graph. Change each series to “Percent Change from Year Ago” and adjust the sample to eliminate the years where only the all-items CPI was available.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CPIAUCSL, CPIENGSL, CUSR0000SETB01, CUUR0300SS47015

Measuring risk

How much risk is in the economy? It depends what you mean by risk. If you want to know, roughly, the level of risk that businesses cannot honor their debts, then you want to look at the risk premium. The risk premium quantifies the differences in the yields of bonds in different risk categories. This risk premium is not constant through time: It changes as the overall economy goes through its ups and downs that impact businesses. Here we look at the difference in yields between Moody’s Aaa and Baa corporate bonds. It is clearly visible that much risk was present in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s and also in several of the recent recessions, in particular the previous one. Lately, this risk has largely been vanishing, as corroborated by the St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index©.

How this graph was created: Search for “Moody’s” and select the Aaa rate at a monthly frequency (for a longer sample). Then you add the Baa series and apply transformation “b-a.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

View on FRED, series used in this post: AAA, BAA


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