Federal Reserve Economic Data

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Good times for dividends

Measuring the value of net corporate dividends in the U.S. economy

Today, FRED will help us track the value of something called aggregate net corporate dividends. First, a few definitions:

1. Dividends are distributions of a portion of a company’s earnings to its shareholders.

2. Corporate dividends are dividends paid by corporations.

3. The federal government adjusts the aggregate corporate dividends data to account for dividends paid and received from abroad. (This makes the data consistent with other aspects of the national income accounts.) These adjusted values are net corporate dividends.

Net corporate dividends have grown from $5.8 billion in 1929 to $990 billion in 2017. Of course, this growth is largely driven by the general increase in prices—i.e., inflation—and by the increase in overall real economic activity. FRED can help us get a sense of the value of these dividends relative to the total economy by plotting net corporate dividends as a fraction of nominal gross domestic product. The graph includes each year from 1929 through 2017. Apart from a few years during and after the most recent recession, this value has exceeded 5 percent for the past 11 years. Before this, you’d have to go back to World War II for this value to exceed 5 percent. So, yes: Good times for dividends.

How this graph was created: Search for “corporate dividend,” choose the series “Net Corporate Dividend Payments,” and click “Edit Graph.” In the “Edit Line 1” panel, enter “nominal gross domestic product” in the search field, choose “Gross Domestic Product, Billions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted,” and click “Add.” Next, to compute the ratio of these two variables, type “a/b” in the formula field (where “a” is the dividends variable and “b” is the nominal GDP variable) and click “Apply.”

Suggested by Bill Dupor.

View on FRED, series used in this post: B056RC1A027NBEA, GDPA

Did the U.S. government just achieve a surplus?

A closer look at our national accounts

Almost all governments run deficits, so it’s a big deal when a government achieves a surplus. This graph includes data for all levels of U.S. government (local, state, and federal) on the net result of their lending and borrowing: A net deficit appears below the zero line, and a net surplus appears above the zero line. Notice the sudden jump in the fourth quarter of 2017 that reaches just above zero? This is a seasonally adjusted data series, by the way, so this jump has nothing to do with the regular influx of tax payments as the filing deadline approaches. (And that particular seasonal jump is in the second quarter, anyway.) So what’s going on here?

This jump from deficit to surplus has to do with the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. One of its provisions is a one-time tax of foreign corporate earnings from 1986 to 2017. The so-called repatriation tax. This one-time capital transfer from businesses to government is estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to be about $250 billion. Converted to annual rates, this implies a $1 trillion jump in government revenue in the fourth quarter that will not happen again. If we deduct this $1 trillion, the series actually moves downward from the third quarter’s value.

How this graph was created: Search for “net lending,” click on the government series, then select “Add to Graph.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: AD01RC1Q027SBEA

What’s the return on a certificate of deposit?

A look at CDs for our CDth blog post

We’re celebrating our 400th FRED Blog post by writing about the certificate of deposit—which is abbreviated as CD, which is also Roman for 400.

A CD is a savings vehicle that allows anyone to earn a little more interest than regular savings accounts provide. And the longer you commit your savings to a CD, the more interest you get. The Federal Deposit Insurance Company—which is abbreviated as FDIC, which is also Roman for F599—collects information about CDs in all its member banks and averages them in two categories: jumbo (over $100,000) and non-jumbo. This graph shows all the non-jumbo maturities listed in FRED. By the way, jumbo CDs offer a slightly higher return, which you can see if you create another graph.

How this graph was created: Search for “CD rate,” check the series you want, and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, open the “Format” panel and change the order of the lines to sort them by maturity (this process may take some time).

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CD12NRNJ, CD1NRNJ, CD24NRNJ, CD36NRNJ, CD3NRNJ, CD48NRNJ, CD60NRNJ, CD6NRNJ


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